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Asian countries (China, S Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong) have already beaten the virus with "five weapons" of public health. So anyone with common sense would fight the virus by wielding all five weapons. https://www.newyorker.com/science/medical-dispatch/its-not-too-late-to-go-on-offense-against-the-coronavirus
For some reason the US and other Western countries haven't figured this out. "It’s like they’re all just lemmings, walking off a cliff, not learning from countries that have succeeded.” https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-out-of-home-quarantine-measures-in-china-helped-limit-spread-of/
Suppose that you are faced with a life-threatening problem. You are lucky to meet several people who have already solved that same problem. They give you a list, and say do these five things and your problem will be solved.
Instead you walk away and say to yourself, gee I'm not sure all five items on the list are important. Maybe I can get away with doing just some of them. That's the idiotic response of Western countries.
Those Asian countries provide ways for infected people with mild symptoms to isolate outside their homes. What do we in the US say to people not sick enough for the hospital? "Go home and infect your families."
Americans have heard proposals to do better, but there are still few options for out-of-home quarantine. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/opinion/coronavirus-new-york-quarantine.html
Did you read that analysis of Wuhan data by a bunch of Chinese scientists? They crunched the numbers to show that social distancing flattens the curve, but bending it way down also requires isolation away from home. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2764658
Oh you didn't bother to read? You don't believe those scientists because everyone knows that Chinese are liars and they're faking their numbers? Well let me give you some data from another source.
All 42 @Apple stores in China are open for business. The rest of its 500 stores worldwide have been shuttered indefinitely. The only exception is a store that just reopened in Korea. https://www.businessinsider.com/first-apple-store-outside-china-open-after-coronavirus-closures-2020-4
You still think those Chinese don't know what they're talking about? Actually one of them is American and teaches at some obscure school called @Harvard. She gave a webinar and posted her slides a month ago. https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/biostatistics/2020/03/watch-xihong-lins-webinar-on-covid-19-research/
Oh you're not sure that @XihongLin has proved her hypothesis yet? You want to test it by implementing social distancing without out-of-home quarantine?
Congratulations. You're part of the control group. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treatment_and_control_groups
Every day I wake up and check how this massive experiment is going. Every day I look at NJ/US daily deaths and new cases and see that the curve is either flat or decaying at a glacial pace. So far the data is consistent with @XihongLin hypothesis.
Hey Spain and Italy are also in the control group and they're also consistent with the hypothesis. https://twitter.com/XihongLin/status/1251325708791660557?s=20
And Germany, praised as a model for its Covid response? Also stuck. https://twitter.com/XihongLin/status/1252242487076323335?s=20
This experiment is so powerful. So many control groups! The suspense is killing me. I'm eagerly looking forward to next week's data. Maybe these curves will all start bending down fast, and her hypothesis will be overturned!
OK I'm being sarcastic. I really wish I didn't have to be part of the control group. In Wuhan, the numbers decayed rapidly, by 10x/month. The control groups are managing 2x/month at best.
Hordes of people are losing their jobs and otherwise suffering dire economic consequences. Can our leaders look them in the eye and honestly say they tried their hardest to make the lockdown short? By wielding as many of the five weapons of public health as possible?
OK I'll go back to looking at the numbers now...gotta see how this experiment turns out.
All together now: "We are the control group!"
