US Coronavirus Update for Monday, April 20, 2020
~ Trends back on course

Fatalities first ~

• Total US covid-19 deaths as of Mon, Apr 20: 42,335

• Increase in last 24 hours: 1,669 (+4%)

--> Deaths rise slightly from Sunday

--> Lowest single-day total since 4/12

2/ These fatality numbers are for Monday, and we know historically that Sunday & Monday numbers trend artificially low because of weekend reporting lags.

And we are still in the extended period of deaths catching up with the large surge two weeks ago in new cases.

3/ New deaths, previous 24 hours:

• Mon, Apr 20: +1,669

• Mon, Apr 13: +1,496

• Mon, Apr 6: +1,275

Although deaths are plateauing, this is also the most deadly Monday of the pandemic in the U.S.

4/ Total new deaths higher this Monday than any other — in part because the number of sick Americans is so high.

The percent increase in deaths shows that the trend in deaths, overall, is down.

5/ Trailing 5-day average, percent increase in new deaths, last 24 hours:

• Mon, Apr 20: +6.6%

• Mon, Apr 13: +10.0%

• Mon, Apr 6: +16.4%

The actual number of new deaths each 24 hours won't start to drop until we get a couple weeks away from 30,000+ new cases a day.

6/ But the downward trend in the rate of increase each day — we are 40% below where we were two weeks ago — that's what you want to see.

7/ Now, new cases.

• Total confirmed US cases, Mon, April 20: 787,218

• Increase in cases in last 24 hours: 28,650 (+4%)

--> New cases up 5,200 compared to Sunday (20%)

--> Monday increase more in line with previous week than Sunday's very low number

8/ New confirmed cases has a phenomenon similar to deaths.

New cases:

• Mon, Apr 20: +28,650

• Mon, Apr 13: +24,108

• Mon, Apr 6: +30,233

• Mon, Mar 31: +22,921

Yesterday wasn't the biggest Monday for new cases, but the 2nd biggest.

9/ What's striking, in fact, is how long we've been adding 25,000+ cases a day: Weeks.

Rate of increase in new cases trending down—slowly.

Trailing 5-day average of confirmed cases:

• Mon, Apr 20: +4.2%

• Mon, Apr 13: +6.2%

• Mon, Apr 6: +11.2%

• Mon, Mar 31: +20.2%

10/ In the last 14 days…

• 2 days, US added fewer than 25,000 cases
(1 Sun, 1 Mon)

• 8 days, US added 30,000 or more cases

Most important, US as a whole hasn't had even 2 days where cases went down, day over day, in 2 weeks.

Looking for that, 14 days in a row.

11/ Now, testing data.

• New tests performed Monday, April 20, 2020: 137,687

• Change from previous day: –29,643

• 5-day trailing average of new tests performed: 152,159

• Total US tests performed as of April 18: 4,003,551

12/ Monday, lowest number of tests performed in a week.

The drop was low enough that it dropped the 5-day trailing average.

There has been an intense focus on testing for a week, two weeks, three weeks.

13/ Tests performed per day, trailing 5-day average:

• Mon, Apr 20: 152,000

• Mon, Apr 13: 144,000

• Mon, Apr 6: 151,000*

US testing capacity is not growing at all — at least in terms of actual tests performed. Not even 1%.

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* Includes dramatic spike day, 4/4

14/ What's so striking about the testing data:

It doesn't look like a nation gearing up to re-start its economy.

There is understandable impatience to get back to work & life.

So why aren't we testing more & more widely to see where the virus is, & where it hasn't arrived yet?

15/ A story from the weekend reminds us how patient the virus is, and how fast and thorough once it is unleashed.

GE has a factory in Grand Forks, ND, that makes the blades on big wind turbines.

900 employees.

430 tested for coronavirus.

110 positive.

Factory closed.

16/ That's why people are cautious about the enthusiasm for 'opening for business' in Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida.

The city of Grand Forks got an email about the GE plant not following social distancing rules 1 month ago — March 23. https://www.grandforksherald.com/newsmd/coronavirus/5382822-Grand-Forks-Mayor-Mike-Brown-fills-in-timeline-on-LM-outbreak

17/ The GE factory example is similar to last week's Smithfield Foods facility in South Dakota — which had 340+ cases out of 3,400 employees, before being forced to close by local officials.

18/ These early states are, essentially, volunteering to be the test subjects — to see if they can issue a set of rules for businesses and employees to follow that will both allow some business to re-open, while keeping employees and customers safe.

19/ Will the rules be followed?

Will we follow them with care, for long enough?

Is the virus stamped out enough so it won't find a fresh foothold?

20/ We won't know for weeks, of course. The virus has a 2-week incubation period.

What will be happening in mid-May?

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