THREAD: Has Covid-19 impacted jihadist activities? https://trib.al/P2cFcC8 

We’ve analysed online output of three prominent jihadist groups to assess how the coronavirus pandemic affected their activity in the early stages of the outbreak. 2/

Islamic state group (IS): The number of claimed attacks remained fairly consistent across the first three months of 2020 (more on methodology below). 3/

In March IS urged its militants and followers to exploit the pandemic and step up attacks. 4/

Iraq has witnessed a considerable spike in IS attacks this month, with 50 claimed up to 15th April. 5/

Al-Qaeda’s JNIM: The Sahel-based group claimed around the same number of attacks in March as January, with a drop in February. 6/

JNIM first mentioned Covid-19 on 10 April, hailing the pandemic as "God's punishment" for France which has forces in Mali. JNIM prayed the outbreak will help unravel the international coalition against jihadists in the Sahel 7/

Al-Shabab: Operations by the Al-Qaeda affiliate in Somalia also appear to have been largely unaffected by the Covid-19 outbreak so far. 8/

Methodology: All data is based on claims made via media channels affiliated with these groups with the acknowledgement that figures may be exaggerated. 9/

Other prominent jihadist groups were excluded from the study either because their media output is sporadic (Boko Haram) or because other events on the ground could account for data fluctuations (Taliban, HTS) 10/