In this thread I give evidence that at least 3,569 deaths in the Week 15 ONS mortality report are not due to Covid-19. One piece of evidence is that there is a 61%-39% male-female disparity in Covid-19 deaths (per death certificate) and a 50-50 split in the remainder. 1/7

According to ONS there are 6,123 deaths with Covid-19 listed on the death certificate, and we can reasonably estimate that there are 2,699 without such a listing. 2/7 h/t @AlistairHaimes https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1252561831618641920

The death certificate listing is not a direct claim of causation by Covid-19. An ONS report for March deaths found 86% in this category were caused by Covid-19. 3/7 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinmarch2020

If we assume the 86% rate applies to Week 15, then 5,343 of the deaths with Covid-19 listed on the death certificated were caused by it, and 870 were not. Adding 870 to the those without Covid-19 on the death certificate (2,699), we see a total 3,569. 4/7

Of the 6,213 deaths in Week 15 with Covid-19 on the death certificate, 61% are male and 39% are female. Subtracting these from the total, the remaining 12,303 deaths in Week 15 follow the usual 50-50 male-female split. 5/7

There is now a widespread pattern of male-female disparity in Covid-19 deaths of around 60%-40% or 70%-30% in many countries. The fact that the 12,303 without Covid-19 on the death certificate break down to 50-50 implies non-Covid-19 causes of death. 6/7

One might query whether the 61%-39% disparity in the 6,213 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate implies ALL are due to Covid-19. But I think it’s safer to assume only 86% are as above. 7/7