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1/ New IPCC climate models suggest that even with massive emissions reductions, we& #39;ll hit catastrophic 1.5C in the 2020s, and then horrific 2C by 2030 - 2040.
We must have immediate emergency emissions cuts through extraordinary government intervention to stay below 3C.
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We must have immediate emergency emissions cuts through extraordinary government intervention to stay below 3C.
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2/ & #39;Only one socio-economic scenario limits warming to 2C& #39; :
& #39;Even then, the scenario calls for extreme mitigation efforts, and we will still likely exceed the target..warming over 2C before cooling down only if drastic geoengineering measures are taken& #39;. https://www.vice.com/en_in/article/ywabb5/new-dire-climate-models-say-the-planet-warms-faster-than-we-thought">https://www.vice.com/en_in/art...
& #39;Even then, the scenario calls for extreme mitigation efforts, and we will still likely exceed the target..warming over 2C before cooling down only if drastic geoengineering measures are taken& #39;. https://www.vice.com/en_in/article/ywabb5/new-dire-climate-models-say-the-planet-warms-faster-than-we-thought">https://www.vice.com/en_in/art...
3/ These new models suggest higher climate sensitivity than previously thought. This would have profound & #39;societal ramifications.& #39;
There is real debate over climate sensitivity.
This study shows the & #39;possibility that ECS is indeed high in the real world& #39;. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL085782">https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/...
There is real debate over climate sensitivity.
This study shows the & #39;possibility that ECS is indeed high in the real world& #39;. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL085782">https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/...
4/ It& #39;s been clear for years that emergency emissions cuts are vital. There& #39;s no & #39;carbon budget& #39; left.
2017: & #39;achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.& #39; https://www.nature.com/articles/nature24672">https://www.nature.com/articles/...
2017: & #39;achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.& #39; https://www.nature.com/articles/nature24672">https://www.nature.com/articles/...
5/ There& #39;s a very real risk that even with fairly big emissions reductions we& #39;ll still hit the total devastation of 4- 5C by 2065- 2095, depending on feedbacks and climate sensitivity. That & #39;this is not necessarily the most likely outcome& #39; isn& #39;t reassuring. https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-carbon-cycle-feedbacks-could-make-global-warming-worse">https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-...
6/ Some argue that current climate policies will delay 2C to 2050, however this doesn& #39;t take into account *plans* for fossil fuel production, not does it properly consider current investment levels by banks and governments which are rising not decreasing. https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/11/pollution-from-planned-fossil-fuel-production-would-overshoot-paris-climate-goals/">https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/11/p...
7/ Many knew what to do well before this 2017 study:
& #39;Humans must reduce net greenhouse gases emissions to zero “well before 2040” in order to ensure global warming does not go above 1.5C by the end of the century& #39;.
In reality 1.5C was already locked in. https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/world-zero-carbon-emissions-before-2040-two-decades-climate-change-global-warming-greenhouse-gases-a7682001.html">https://www.independent.co.uk/environme...
& #39;Humans must reduce net greenhouse gases emissions to zero “well before 2040” in order to ensure global warming does not go above 1.5C by the end of the century& #39;.
In reality 1.5C was already locked in. https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/world-zero-carbon-emissions-before-2040-two-decades-climate-change-global-warming-greenhouse-gases-a7682001.html">https://www.independent.co.uk/environme...
8/ & #39;Net& #39; zero is in reality & #39;not& #39; zero. We need meaningful, real or near zero emissions in the next decade or two. It will take something utterly unprecedented in human history. https://actionaid.org/publications/2015/caught-net-how-net-zero-emissions-will-delay-real-climate-action-and-drive-land">https://actionaid.org/publicati...
9/ & #39;A crazy experiment& #39;
At 412 ppm and rising, temperature rises of 3-4C are likely now locked in according to some scientists:
& #39;unless humans figure a way to suck CO2 out of the air on a massive scale, severe impacts are inevitable& #39;. https://phys.org/news/2019-04-dire-future-etched-co2-million.html">https://phys.org/news/2019...
At 412 ppm and rising, temperature rises of 3-4C are likely now locked in according to some scientists:
& #39;unless humans figure a way to suck CO2 out of the air on a massive scale, severe impacts are inevitable& #39;. https://phys.org/news/2019-04-dire-future-etched-co2-million.html">https://phys.org/news/2019...
10/ & #39;if the world community moves fast enough, it is still possible to achieve 350 ppm of carbon in the atmosphere..through improved forestry and agricultural practices& #39;
Only emergency action can stop emissions, curb deforestation & transform food systems. https://monthlyreview.org/2019/02/01/mr-070-09-2019-02_0/?__twitter_impression=true">https://monthlyreview.org/2019/02/0...
Only emergency action can stop emissions, curb deforestation & transform food systems. https://monthlyreview.org/2019/02/01/mr-070-09-2019-02_0/?__twitter_impression=true">https://monthlyreview.org/2019/02/0...
For more on this area see this conversation : https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1252611332114976771?s=19">https://twitter.com/ClimateBe...
