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1/ New IPCC climate models suggest that even with massive emissions reductions, we'll hit catastrophic 1.5C in the 2020s, and then horrific 2C by 2030 - 2040.
We must have immediate emergency emissions cuts through extraordinary government intervention to stay below 3C.
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We must have immediate emergency emissions cuts through extraordinary government intervention to stay below 3C.
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2/ 'Only one socio-economic scenario limits warming to 2C' :
'Even then, the scenario calls for extreme mitigation efforts, and we will still likely exceed the target..warming over 2C before cooling down only if drastic geoengineering measures are taken'. https://www.vice.com/en_in/article/ywabb5/new-dire-climate-models-say-the-planet-warms-faster-than-we-thought
'Even then, the scenario calls for extreme mitigation efforts, and we will still likely exceed the target..warming over 2C before cooling down only if drastic geoengineering measures are taken'. https://www.vice.com/en_in/article/ywabb5/new-dire-climate-models-say-the-planet-warms-faster-than-we-thought
3/ These new models suggest higher climate sensitivity than previously thought. This would have profound 'societal ramifications.'
There is real debate over climate sensitivity.
This study shows the 'possibility that ECS is indeed high in the real world'. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL085782
There is real debate over climate sensitivity.
This study shows the 'possibility that ECS is indeed high in the real world'. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL085782
4/ It's been clear for years that emergency emissions cuts are vital. There's no 'carbon budget' left.
2017: 'achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.' https://www.nature.com/articles/nature24672
2017: 'achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.' https://www.nature.com/articles/nature24672
5/ There's a very real risk that even with fairly big emissions reductions we'll still hit the total devastation of 4- 5C by 2065- 2095, depending on feedbacks and climate sensitivity. That 'this is not necessarily the most likely outcome' isn't reassuring. https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-carbon-cycle-feedbacks-could-make-global-warming-worse
6/ Some argue that current climate policies will delay 2C to 2050, however this doesn't take into account *plans* for fossil fuel production, not does it properly consider current investment levels by banks and governments which are rising not decreasing. https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/11/pollution-from-planned-fossil-fuel-production-would-overshoot-paris-climate-goals/
7/ Many knew what to do well before this 2017 study:
'Humans must reduce net greenhouse gases emissions to zero “well before 2040” in order to ensure global warming does not go above 1.5C by the end of the century'.
In reality 1.5C was already locked in. https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/world-zero-carbon-emissions-before-2040-two-decades-climate-change-global-warming-greenhouse-gases-a7682001.html
'Humans must reduce net greenhouse gases emissions to zero “well before 2040” in order to ensure global warming does not go above 1.5C by the end of the century'.
In reality 1.5C was already locked in. https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/world-zero-carbon-emissions-before-2040-two-decades-climate-change-global-warming-greenhouse-gases-a7682001.html
8/ 'Net' zero is in reality 'not' zero. We need meaningful, real or near zero emissions in the next decade or two. It will take something utterly unprecedented in human history. https://actionaid.org/publications/2015/caught-net-how-net-zero-emissions-will-delay-real-climate-action-and-drive-land
9/ 'A crazy experiment'
At 412 ppm and rising, temperature rises of 3-4C are likely now locked in according to some scientists:
'unless humans figure a way to suck CO2 out of the air on a massive scale, severe impacts are inevitable'. https://phys.org/news/2019-04-dire-future-etched-co2-million.html
At 412 ppm and rising, temperature rises of 3-4C are likely now locked in according to some scientists:
'unless humans figure a way to suck CO2 out of the air on a massive scale, severe impacts are inevitable'. https://phys.org/news/2019-04-dire-future-etched-co2-million.html
10/ 'if the world community moves fast enough, it is still possible to achieve 350 ppm of carbon in the atmosphere..through improved forestry and agricultural practices'
Only emergency action can stop emissions, curb deforestation & transform food systems. https://monthlyreview.org/2019/02/01/mr-070-09-2019-02_0/?__twitter_impression=true
Only emergency action can stop emissions, curb deforestation & transform food systems. https://monthlyreview.org/2019/02/01/mr-070-09-2019-02_0/?__twitter_impression=true
For more on this area see this conversation : https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1252611332114976771?s=19
