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Trump& #39;s call for an immigration ban raises a key question: in the face of #COVID19, will Trump pursue policies popular with the majority of voters or will he simply double down on his base?
Short answer: base
Long answer: [THREAD] https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1252418369170501639">https://twitter.com/realDonal...
Short answer: base
Long answer: [THREAD] https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1252418369170501639">https://twitter.com/realDonal...
This question is another way to think about the Tweet I sent yesterday https://twitter.com/ProfPaulPoast/status/1252240504583938049">https://twitter.com/ProfPaulP...
So what is popular with voters right now?
Answer: Social Distancing, something the @ChicagoCouncil (among others) has been tracking closely. https://twitter.com/ProfPaulPoast/status/1250440676447121409">https://twitter.com/ProfPaulP...
Answer: Social Distancing, something the @ChicagoCouncil (among others) has been tracking closely. https://twitter.com/ProfPaulPoast/status/1250440676447121409">https://twitter.com/ProfPaulP...
Obviously, work in American Politics could help us think about the policies Trump will pursue while facing a disaster during an election year
https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1017/S0022381611000843">https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/1...
https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1017/S0022381611000843">https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/1...
But international relations scholars are also interested in this topic https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Logic_of_Political_Survival/1PlRlcgQdpMC?hl=en&gbpv=1&printsec=frontcover">https://www.google.com/books/edi...
A key reason IR scholars care about the electoral incentives of a leader is because we think those incentives influence foreign policy.
There are several strands of the IR literature focused on electoral incentives...
...the extensive "Audience Costs" literature: the idea that leaders will be punished for flip-flopping on a foreign policy pronouncement https://twitter.com/ProfPaulPoast/status/1134422125798989825">https://twitter.com/ProfPaulP...
...the "Diversionary War" literature: the idea that a leader will, say, start a war abroad in order to take attention away from a crisis at home
...the "Leader Deception" literature: the claim that leaders will deceive in order to bring about an otherwise unpopular foreign policy gambit https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/ISEC_c_00017?journalCode=isec">https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/1...
...And -- perhaps most relevant to thinking about Trump & #COVID19 -- the "leader culpability" literature: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/deciders-dilemma-leader-culpability-war-outcomes-and-domestic-punishment/509114969EBDD6FAC6DA9323744CDFB4">https://www.cambridge.org/core/jour...
The idea is that leaders who brought their country into a war are "culpable" and will have little incentive to end a war if it will end badly.
This is because their citizens will punish them for starting a losing battle.
This is because their citizens will punish them for starting a losing battle.
What does this have to do with COVID19? You can hear from the author herself! Go to the 52 minute mark of this episode of "Ask a Political Scientist" (hosted by @jonesrooy & @caveatnyc)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_el7DLUAo6g">https://www.youtube.com/watch...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_el7DLUAo6g">https://www.youtube.com/watch...
For me, a key factor is Trump& #39;s PERCEPTION of his culpability.
If Trump perceives himself as "culpable", then, consistent with Croco& #39;s research, one would expect him to try hard to stop the virus and protect public health.
If Trump perceives himself as "culpable", then, consistent with Croco& #39;s research, one would expect him to try hard to stop the virus and protect public health.
But his comments in support of the "anti-social distancing" minority suggest otherwise https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1251169217531056130">https://twitter.com/realDonal...
Also, we& #39;ve seen Trump do a lot to deflect blame: such as saying that it& #39;s the "Chinese Virus" (and claiming that he& #39;s always taken it seriously)... https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1240243188708839424">https://twitter.com/realdonal...
...and even going as far as putting the "economic hardship" blame on on governors https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-coronavirus-blaming-governors-reelection-tactic-2020-4">https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-cor...
This suggests that he does not perceive himself as culpable and is actively trying to ensure that he is not perceived by others as culpable.
