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Having spent time discussing COVID with Sweden based friends I’ve reaccessed some of my earlier thoughts on this.
I still think the Swedish strategy deeply flawed - particularly if COVID doesn’t not confer future immunity, in which case it will be a massive disaster.
However...
I still think the Swedish strategy deeply flawed - particularly if COVID doesn’t not confer future immunity, in which case it will be a massive disaster.
However...
2/
1st the positive from the Swedish experience - Swedes are practicing lockdown similar social distancing to a greater degree than some countries who are in lockdown.
While this reflects well on Swedes sense of personal responsibility it’s hardly a model for other countries.
1st the positive from the Swedish experience - Swedes are practicing lockdown similar social distancing to a greater degree than some countries who are in lockdown.
While this reflects well on Swedes sense of personal responsibility it’s hardly a model for other countries.
3/
2nd According to the latest stats I could find - the vast majority of Swedes live on households of 1-2 people - and the majority of those are single home dwellers.
A country geared to social distancing mostly living alone is going to have the same transmission overload.
2nd According to the latest stats I could find - the vast majority of Swedes live on households of 1-2 people - and the majority of those are single home dwellers.
A country geared to social distancing mostly living alone is going to have the same transmission overload.
4/
Finally - the health service level and investment in Sweden is superb meaning that they don’t need - from an infrastructure view - need to flatten the curve as quickly.
This means that in health policy terms they have more time/room to maneuver compared to other countries.
Finally - the health service level and investment in Sweden is superb meaning that they don’t need - from an infrastructure view - need to flatten the curve as quickly.
This means that in health policy terms they have more time/room to maneuver compared to other countries.
5/
Does this mean I think Sweden an example to follow? - no.
What it does show is a rich, responsible individual based country with a superb funded health system can “take a punt” on more deaths upfront believing this can help with immunity and allow it to lockdown in phases.
Does this mean I think Sweden an example to follow? - no.
What it does show is a rich, responsible individual based country with a superb funded health system can “take a punt” on more deaths upfront believing this can help with immunity and allow it to lockdown in phases.
6/
The clearest view is that Sweden has already accepted 1 000+ extra deaths of older people than would otherwise be the case but that other countries following Sweden’s example without Sweden’s mitigating factors would have seen health services overwhelmed & huge fatalities.
The clearest view is that Sweden has already accepted 1 000+ extra deaths of older people than would otherwise be the case but that other countries following Sweden’s example without Sweden’s mitigating factors would have seen health services overwhelmed & huge fatalities.
7/
Only Swedes can know if this right - however
eg gives good pointers to our exit strategy - exiting from lockdown will cost us but if populations take social distancing seriously deaths/infections can be kept low.
Question do you trust your population to do this?
/ends
Only Swedes can know if this right - however
eg gives good pointers to our exit strategy - exiting from lockdown will cost us but if populations take social distancing seriously deaths/infections can be kept low.Question do you trust your population to do this?
/ends
