* ONS reports deaths with Covid-19 recorded on the death certificate about 40% above the government hospitalised confirmed deaths (by April 10th). https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1252515415873466368

The overall 'excess deaths' number compared to the 5 year average could well be higher again. The ONS catches deaths where Covid-19 was suspected (but not confirmed) but may not catch all such cases https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1252515847849029632

From Economist data journalist re excess death trajectory https://twitter.com/J_CD_T/status/1252518957963268096

ONS: 18,500 deaths registered (almost 8000 more deaths than expected for this week), of which 6200 included Covid-19 on death certificate.

This suggests 1800 recorded deaths (10% of total; 1/4 of excess) are an excess which wasn't recorded as Covid-19 https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1252518725753995266

UK deaths from Covid-19 clearly now in excess of 20,000
- add 4k Covid on death certificate deaths outside hospital by April 10th would take total to almost 20,500
Also 1800 more excess deaths before April 10th
+ non-hospital deaths since (probably 2-3k) https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1252257328205836288

Using ONS figures to estimate would suggest that UK deaths from Covid-19 so far will now be closer to 25k than 20k. Maybe > 25k already. (Non-hospital deaths to be added for post-April 10th too; also other excess deaths, pre April 10th, probably also for post-April 10th).

Over 20,000 UK deaths confirmed is now a public fact - for hospital deaths (to April 20) + non-hospital deaths (to April 10)

Around 25,000 already is a calculation; seems likely to be accurate projection. Others would be able to make a much more granular projection than that.