1/ Four things I am pretty sure about. 1.) What I don't know about things is far exceeded by what I do know about things. 2.) Most folks do not feel the same way about their particular set of knowledge of the world as I do in 1 above. 3.) Those folks are dead wrong.
2/ 4.) There is going to be something in this thread to piss off just about everyone, namely mathematicians @EricRWeinstein , Ex-wall Street types @LukeGromen , Tesla Haters @ttmygh , and probably a few other "groups" or tribes.
3/ Worth noting the folks I have called out by name above are folks I have a deep and abiding respect for, disagree with vehemently on a few key points, and am sure they know WAY more than me in their chosen areas of expertise, as well a many others. So to begin.
4/ Let's talk about the gold/oil ratio "correlation" @HenrikZeberg If I take you correctly you think gold is going to go way down (in USD) because of the of the aforementioned reason.
5/ (and Gold MAY go down in USD, but both, NOT for "that" reason and, I fucking doubt it.) Let us fast forward to a world I am pretty sure is coming and examine your claims. Imagine every car on the road is some form of a (FSD) $tsla (i.e. An EV), and further every long-haul…
6/ …"plane" flying is a "Tesla" rocket ship, (powered by solar energy generated fuel i.e. all that is required are carbon dioxide, oxygen, and electricity to produce methane and liquid oxygen), every factory and house is powered by a renewable form of energy, and oil is only…
7/ …being used "ONLY" to produce fertilizer (i.e. Nitrogen fixation) (h/t Charlie Munger) In that world (a fantasy... maybe) what meaning is possessed by the oil to gold ratio? Nada! Not a damn thing. But I am guessing Gold will still perform its role.
8/ That ratio DID mean something 30 years ago when oxidizing petroleum was the defacto energy source for everything. But as the bias has shifted away from hydrocarbons as being the sole source of energy production and demand that ratio means less and less.
9/ And yesterday's negative pricing of Oil proved it mathematically. What was the oil to gold ratio when oil traded at 1 penny? I don't know. But I do know when oil traded for "zero" the ratio mathematically is undefined since zero does not have a multiplicative inverse.
10/ That was the crossing of the Rubicon moment that definitely showed the Gold Oil ratio just don't mean what you thought it did anymore. When it traded negatively that should have confirmed it for you. Happy to be disabused of any of my thoughts not relating to Tesla.
11/ Because in that I am right, you are smart, and the future is coming.
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