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ONWARD was very much the canary in the coalmine. https://variety.com/2020/film/box-office/wonder-woman-1984-mulan-movie-theaters-reopen-july-1234583328/
Lucas and Spielberg did warn this could happen. Not the exact circumstances, of course, but the danger of a blockbuster bust. https://www.theguardian.com/film/2013/jun/13/steven-spielberg-george-lucas-film-industry
The film industry was built on a robust catalog of low and mid-budget films with special productions punctuating. This is going to be a major test of the modern industry's pivot to relying on billion dollar grosses.
Because as it stands, major studios have billions of dollars tied up in $100-200 million films that they can't release and may be unable to release for a long stretch. And even when it's safe to reopen theaters, will those billion dollar grosses return too?
People ask me about the movie theaters closing during the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic.
What you have to realize is that an insane, starry-eyed budget for a single film back then would make a decent rom-com today when you adjust for inflation.
What you have to realize is that an insane, starry-eyed budget for a single film back then would make a decent rom-com today when you adjust for inflation.
So, yeah, the industry was battered but there was a lot less money tied up in individual productions, there was no wide release scheme so movies would not open so much as unfurl. Maybe the small towns would get the famous Easter hit in time for Halloween.
As a result, the American film industry of the late 1910s was in a much better position to deal with a temporary shutdown. There was less money at stake, a larger window for earnings and only 50-60% of theaters closed.
We do have a silent era parallel but it is imperfect. The silent era was all about reducing risk, which was why studios resisted feature films. Why pay $300,000 for one movie when you can make 20 programmers for the same money?
Now? Put every penny on one horse and let it ride!
Now? Put every penny on one horse and let it ride!
Irving Thalberg would faint if he saw the sums modern filmmaking demands. (Erich von Stroheim would call it an interesting opening bid. 
)
Not that 1910s movies were primitive or simplistic. Popular films were simply cheaper back then.
)Not that 1910s movies were primitive or simplistic. Popular films were simply cheaper back then.
Why do you think they made so many westerns back then? They were cheap thanks to economy of scale (one western town infinitely redressed, a stable of horses and stuntmen on salary) and they paid the bills.
Rin-Tin-Tin underwrote John Barrymore's prestige pictures.
Rin-Tin-Tin underwrote John Barrymore's prestige pictures.
We don't know what is going to happen. This is a generation-defining event. Will it change tastes? Will studios have to dial back their blockbuster frenzy? Your guess is as good as mine but this is going to change movies dramatically.
Remember, the current blockbuster business model is to tease, cajole and threaten ("see it opening weekend before someone spoils it!!!") people into buying tickets for a mammoth opening.
And now, it turns out more modest releases with long legs are the hope of the future.
And now, it turns out more modest releases with long legs are the hope of the future.
