THREAD: We need to wait for more definitive information. While the recent reports of Kim Jong-un's ill health could be true, over the years, there were a number of false health reports about Kim Jong-un, his father Kim Jong-Il, and his grandfather Kim Il-sung. (1/)

The CNN story, which is driving much of this frenzy, indicated the "US is monitoring intelligence" rather than the US "has" intelligence (which would likely be highly compartmentalized such as SIGINT). Kim Jong-Il was dead for several days before U.S. intelligence knew. (2/

It may be a case of circular reporting based on a single source (Daily NK) which remains unconfirmed.
Kim was absent from the important April 15 celebrations of the birth of his grandfather, but this year's events were more muted, perhaps due to the COVID-related measures.
(3/)

As when Kim Jong-Il died, there is no succession plan in the North Korean constitution. Kim's sister, Kim Yo-jong, has gained authority and exposure in recent months and years, perhaps sufficient to be the next leader to maintain the Kim bloodline. But nothing is certain. (4/)

Until recently, the usual assessment would be that a "Confucian Korean culture" would never choose a woman to rule North Korea. But Kim Yo-jong has recently gained prominence. If Kim were sick, he may have designated her since she is likely the only person he trusts. (5/)

If she were chosen, the regime would emphasize the continuity of the Paektu bloodline going back to Kim Il-sung.
FWIW: A list of leadership change indicators I came up with in 2010 (at the end of this link)
https://www.heritage.org/asia/report/leadership-change-north-korea-what-it-means-the-us (6/6)