Biden's potentially best pick for VP isn't a name in the headlines right now. But you can bet he's considering her. They worked together for five years, and her case is strong. Everyone, case your gaze westward to Janet Napolitano. 1/13

Why? Start with the structure of the 2020 race. It's not going to be an identity-politics or ideological election. Af-Ams, e.g., have shown they want Trump out and will go with the candidate(s) who can accomplish that. Same is true of the rest of the Dem base. 2/13

To evict Trump, the key isn't appeal to Dem interest groups or blue states. It's appeal to swing voters, especially suburbanites and college-educated women, and above all in a handful of battleground states. 3/13

These voters (like everyone) know that Biden's age make his VP likely to succeed him. They want a VP who they can envision as commander-in-chief and who is a safe pair of hands. Someone they can easily imagine as president. 4/13

Harris and Abrams don't have the experience. Maybe not Warren, either, and she's probably too scary. Whitmer is green, still in only her second year as governor. 5/13

So the list is getting short. But...Napolitano! 6/13

She was a successful state attorney general in Arizona. Then a popular two-term governor. Remember, Az is a red state, but in her re-election bid, she crushed the Republican by almost 2:1. Won every county and every legislative district (unprecedented in Arizona!). 7/13

Then she was Obama's Secretary of Homeland Security. Downside: immigrant deportations, hugely unpopular with Dem base. Upside: major national-security cred. And...she worked with VP Biden for five years. 8/13

Most recently, she ran the country's premier university system (U-Cal.) Conveniently, she will be stepping down in August. Kids, can you say "available"? 9/13

So no one will doubt her gravitas and ability to take the reins. Also...Arizona! 10/13

AZ hasn't voted blue since 1996 but looks within reach for Democrats this year. If Biden can win the state's 11 electoral votes, he wins the election, almost for sure. Hmm, might a popular former governor help? 11/13

Sen. Klobuchar has experience, gravitas, and wins red votes, but Biden needs less help in Minnesota. And pragmatic voters tend to prefer governors for their executive experience. 12/13

So Napolitano brings a lot to the table. Biden would be crazy not to put her on the short list. And the dude ain't crazy. You heard it here. 13/13