1/6 the price action today in May CLK0 trading from 18 to -38 is NOT due to $USO rebalancing - USO was down the same amount (-9%) as CL2/CLM0 which means USO alrady rolled the contracts last week - it is due to retail investors who are slightly more sophisticated

2/6 instead of buying USO the retail was invested in front month oil futures - they forgot to roll, and given the weak price action CME out of nowhere during the day informed retail brokers like eTrade/IB/Fidelity that prices can go to negative which means brokers are

3/6 potentially liable for negative equity, this exacerbated further selling and so at around the Nymex pit close 2:30 pm est, all the retail brokers liquidated the clients front month or cash settled as the retail brokers also cannot take physical delivery

4/6 causing prices to tank from +2 to -38 in matter of minutes into tomorrow’s 2:30pm official May future expiry, only institutional accounts can trade May and take delivery starting now, I bet your eTrade won’t have the May ticker up anymore

5/6 the retail fomo frenzie in buying the oil dip is real thoguh - USO tried to create 4 billion new shares to accommodate such inflows of buying interest - retail thinks they are buying the -10 dollars dip in oil but in fact are paying for CL2, June contract

6/6 so in conclusion, retail fomo, cme trying time protect itself and retail brokers not wanting to take physical delivery all caused the front months historical drop but most importantly the central bank distortions is causing crazy price actions elsewhere