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Two predictions: now that the MLB coronavirus antibody testing period has concluded (as of last Wednesday), 1) we will find out this week that 55-60% of the players/personnel tested positive, 2) the MLB season will begin on or around Memorial Day. Here& #39;s why ... (thread)
Chris Sale spends his offseason in Florida, and on Feb 12 it was reported that a) he had been dealing with "flu-like symptoms" but b) tested negative for the flu, and so c) was presumed to have pneumonia. He now suspects he had COVID-19.
The Orioles, who also camp in Florida, dealt with multiple players being sidelined because of "flu-like symptoms": Pedro Severino, Mychal Givens, and Hunter Harvey all missed field action.
The Cubs, who train in Arizona, were also ravaged by "flu-like symptoms" throughout spring training. Yu Darvish and David Ross were both hospitalized. Jose Quintana and Jason Kipnis both missed playing time.
On March 1, the San Diego Union-Tribune reported, "The flu bug darting through the Padres’ clubhouse claimed another victim: Fernando Tatis Jr."
The dates of these reported illnesses range from early February through early March, weeks before COVID-19 became a serious issue in the US and forced spring training to shut down. It is entirely likely that the virus was spreading in MLB camps by then.
If multiple teams were experiencing COVID-like symptoms in both Florida and Arizona, and given what we know about the hyper-contagious nature of the virus, it& #39;s reasonable to think that at least half of MLB teams have been exposed already.
These examples are just the ones that made headlines. Expect that a) many other players were sidelined with "flu-like symptoms," b) they were never tested for COVID-19 because it wasn& #39;t on their radar, and c) as healthy athletes, they recovered quickly.
If half of MLB teams (a conservative estimate) were exposed to the virus, then 55-60% of players and personnel testing positive for antibodies is a low-end projection. It& #39;s probably more than that, but there are lots of unknown variables.
With more than half of the players testing positive for antibodies, there will be no reason to suspend the season any longer. Assuming the study results are released by this Friday, one month from that will be Memorial Day Weekend.
If MLB teams are cleared to start the season, my guess is they& #39;ll take 2-3 weeks to get stretched out and maybe play some exhibition games, and Rob Manfred won& #39;t be able to resist the symbolism of relaunching America& #39;s pastime on an American holiday.
Side prediction: the results of the MLB antibody tests will also later be used to extrapolate how many Americans in general have already developed immunity, and will factor into how the economy is re-opened. But that& #39;s another subject for another time.
