We& #39;ve got another day of COVID data! Tests down, positive rate up. Death rate continues its inexorable rise, up to 6.2% now.

The pace of curve flattening seems to be continuing to slow. It& #39;s continuing; weekly growth rates continue to fall. But at this rate we& #39;re approaching a period where growth rates may soon flatten or even rise.

How many people have gotten COVID?

I& #39;m increasingly biasing towards the upper part of this range. At this point my mental estimate is >3% of Americans have been exposed. Could be as high as 7%.

However, as I explained yesterday, even if 7% of Americans have already been infected and IFR is just 0.5%, we& #39;re still looking at herd immunity being an enormous catastrophe with WAY more deaths than models currently predict. https://twitter.com/lymanstoneky/status/1252153004674871298">https://twitter.com/lymanston...

By the way. If the 0.5% IFR etimate is correct, then we would need 2.5 million tests ***per day*** to do a universal test and trace program.

lol that ain& #39;t happening