We've got another day of COVID data! Tests down, positive rate up. Death rate continues its inexorable rise, up to 6.2% now.

The pace of curve flattening seems to be continuing to slow. It's continuing; weekly growth rates continue to fall. But at this rate we're approaching a period where growth rates may soon flatten or even rise.

How many people have gotten COVID?

I'm increasingly biasing towards the upper part of this range. At this point my mental estimate is >3% of Americans have been exposed. Could be as high as 7%.

However, as I explained yesterday, even if 7% of Americans have already been infected and IFR is just 0.5%, we're still looking at herd immunity being an enormous catastrophe with WAY more deaths than models currently predict. https://twitter.com/lymanstoneky/status/1252153004674871298

By the way. If the 0.5% IFR etimate is correct, then we would need 2.5 million tests ***per day*** to do a universal test and trace program.

lol that ain't happening