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THREAD: Lot’s of talk about #KimJongun’s health. I’m reading&hearing he is: 1) In grave condition; 2) Stable&recovering; 3) Dead. Indeed, KimJongun’s absence from the Apr 15 “Day of the Sun” visit to Kumsusan was significant, and he was never a healthy lad. 1/
Still, the reports are unconfirmed, and we can only get a clearer picture when #NorthKorea says something. IF we’re getting 100% accurate real-time info about KimJongun’s current status, it means his personal security&the state’s info security is significantly compromised. 2/
Indeed, we do need to think about the post-KimJongun situation/regime. But that is different from trying to make predictions about a specific scenario. What actually unfolds depends on a constellation of factors, and we need to be ready and flexible. 3/
Abrupt instability in NorthKorea is undesirable from the security&strategic viewpoint - esp. as we're dealing with COVID19. I’m certainly not saying we should help/excuse/indulge the regime. But we do need to be level-headed&responsible in analyzing&dealing with NorthKorea. 4/
Ppl in NorthKorea didn't get real-time info about KimIlsung&KimJongil’s death even while the state was preparing for the official announcement&high-security lockdown. Even when KimJongil was ill in 2008, he was out of the scene for months while there were various speculations. 5/
Regardless of comments by ROK, CCP, or other states’ officials, or whether the streets in Pyongyang look normal today - we can’t get a better picture until NorthKorea makes some kind of announcement. I’m watching the situation but I’m not going to make any assumptions/guesses. 6/
Need to be careful with any info about NorthKorea - esp HUMINT from unknown/single source. Even regarding statements/reports, “monitoring intelligence” “keeping an eye on the situation/developments” “[see no] unusual signs" "no comment" etc. do NOT confirm anything. 7/
So to end this thread, I’ve got no clue about KimJongun’s current status (until there’s something substantive). The only ones that really knows are those with direct contact with KimJongun. If you’re that person, do us a favor and post a selfie with the fella. 8/
