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North Korea is the only dictatorship I can think of to pull off two hereditary successions in a row. Kim’s child (that we know about) is under age 5 (someone check w/Dennis Rodman). So that pathway seems unlikely.... /1 https://twitter.com/sheenagreitens/status/1252432371707604994
We know he has health issues. We know he missed a recent big public holiday (Kim Il Sung’s birthday, 4/15). That’s it for now. His sister has been elevated, but her authority is familial, personal - not institutional. Female family succession in autocracy *very* rare. /2
People speculated re Kim Jong Un’s control over senior military when he took over. Despite that, he consolidated power quickly/ruthlessly (best data I’ve seen on how/why he got rid of elites is from @EdwardGoldring). But he did have window to prep while KJI was in ill health. /3
Would be nice if USFK hadn’t furloughed a bunch of employees 3 weeks ago, if US carrier crews were healthy, & if US-China conversations were in better shape (bc this topic is super tough in the best of times). Sigh. /4
Castro and Somoza both did fraternal successions fwiw - but to adult brothers, not sisters or young children. Kim Jong Un has one brother, rarely seen (remember NK appears to have taken out the exiled half-brother, Kim Jong Nam, using VX in Malaysia in 2017). /5
Blue House appears to think it’s false. Statement that there are no unusual movements detected in NK to date would be reassuring even if news re: KJU is true, bc suggests certain kind of mil stability thus far (weird moves could indicate coup etc etc). /6
Also: could be a less serious health event that doesn’t directly result in succession for years, as @newsjean reminds us occurred under Kim Jong Il in 2008: https://twitter.com/newsjean/status/1252438627885277191?s=21 https://twitter.com/newsjean/status/1252438627885277191
China also reportedly now chiming in against Kim health rumor’s validity. (Confirmation from either China or NK would make me less skeptical.)
https://twitter.com/rover829/status/1252437617469124609?s=21 https://twitter.com/Rover829/status/1252437617469124609
https://twitter.com/rover829/status/1252437617469124609?s=21 https://twitter.com/Rover829/status/1252437617469124609
If true, so many ?s: Who’s in charge? How’s their level of authority over military? Is control over nuclear weapons, missiles, etc secure? How’s their relationship w/China? Has CCP ILD made contact w/KWP? Has anyone in ROK used the DMZ hotline set up for 2018 summit? /9
Also, for lots more background, follow @annafifield and @junghpak1, both of whom have written books on Kim Jong Un (the latter launching next week with @BrookingsFP!).
Note: all this is unconfirmed. In NK, officials commonly leave public view, are reported purged (may even *be* demoted), then re-appear. Kim Yo Jong herself was reported demoted after summit w/US, but reappeared earlier this year to be formally promoted, make public statements.
I’d also want to know: is Kim Jong-Chul (KJU’s brother) actually uninvolved in politics? Does he still have a formal title in the KWP? Has he appeared recently? He’s the obvious male successor even if his father preferred KJU.... /12
Good thread here from @BruceKlingner on uncertainties in the reporting: https://twitter.com/bruceklingner/status/1252456813674496000?s=21 https://twitter.com/bruceklingner/status/1252456813674496000
And context on how this story emerged:
https://twitter.com/jeongminnkim/status/1252415730076676098?s=21 https://twitter.com/jeongminnkim/status/1252415730076676098
https://twitter.com/jeongminnkim/status/1252415730076676098?s=21 https://twitter.com/jeongminnkim/status/1252415730076676098
Update with Trump's comments: https://twitter.com/GalloVOA/status/1252726892664287232?s=20
