The test of a serious observer of North Korea is how readily they are prepared to admit, “I don’t know.” Because of the opacity of the place, NK studies are endlessly forgiving of know-alls, bullshitters and arm chair experts.

All we know with certainty today is that Kim Jong-un has not been seen for nine days (not that unusual), that he missed his late grandfather’s birthday ceremonials (unusual), and that foreign officials are unattributably spreading alarming rumors about his health (fairly routine)

Kim Jong-un may be in a coma, following an operation. But at the moment I don’t know, and nor, I suspect, does anyone else outside North Korea.