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1/ COVID19 impact on public health, market, election (April edition)
TL,DR: public-health crisis over by Nov for working age people. fatality for 65+ bad & having a long tail into 2021.
market continues its V recovery
reopening helps young voters, hurts old voters.
TL,DR: public-health crisis over by Nov for working age people. fatality for 65+ bad & having a long tail into 2021.
market continues its V recovery
reopening helps young voters, hurts old voters.
2/ public health: recent serology data suggest infection rate among 64 and younger appears to approach 4-12% in states first hit by COVID19. (e.g. NY, CA) It is probably to see ~50-60% infection rate by Nov.
States not hard-hit are working hard to catch up via re-opening.
States not hard-hit are working hard to catch up via re-opening.
3/ public health: herd immunity will be somewhat established for 64 and younger by Nov.
but because of
1. high infectiousness
2. large number of asymptomatic carriers
3. reinfection among younger people
65+ will not benefit from herd immunity, esp. in nursing homes.
but because of
1. high infectiousness
2. large number of asymptomatic carriers
3. reinfection among younger people
65+ will not benefit from herd immunity, esp. in nursing homes.
4/ because of personalized treatment needed for people with comorbidities, and because of the large health-care demand from 64 and younger in the big wave from now - Nov, 65+ won't get adequate health care and will see higher than usual fatality rate.
5/ market: because 99% 0-64 year old will survive, re-opening will be pushed forward, and large fiscal/monetary stimulus are already in place.
large-cap companies (sans transportation) will bounce, regardless of short-term earning etc.
large-cap companies (sans transportation) will bounce, regardless of short-term earning etc.
6/ market: in intermediate term (1-4 years), expect high inflation from fiscal/monetary stimulus (dollar devaluation) and from decoupling from China (wage inflation for real this time).
7/ election: paradoxically, premature re-opening will
1. force working-age people to gain herd immunity --> less fear of voting in Nov
2. allow people from reopened states to compare their mortality rate with those from more cautious states, and hold their governor accountable.
1. force working-age people to gain herd immunity --> less fear of voting in Nov
2. allow people from reopened states to compare their mortality rate with those from more cautious states, and hold their governor accountable.
FIN/ 3. lock down 65+ at home and reduce their turn out, since
a. mail-in ballots are being restricted.
b. nov. election will be a superspreading event from immune naive group (65+ folks at that time)
a. mail-in ballots are being restricted.
b. nov. election will be a superspreading event from immune naive group (65+ folks at that time)
