1/ COVID19 impact on public health, market, election (April edition)

TL,DR: public-health crisis over by Nov for working age people. fatality for 65+ bad & having a long tail into 2021.

market continues its V recovery

reopening helps young voters, hurts old voters.

2/ public health: recent serology data suggest infection rate among 64 and younger appears to approach 4-12% in states first hit by COVID19. (e.g. NY, CA) It is probably to see ~50-60% infection rate by Nov.

States not hard-hit are working hard to catch up via re-opening.

3/ public health: herd immunity will be somewhat established for 64 and younger by Nov.

but because of

1. high infectiousness
2. large number of asymptomatic carriers
3. reinfection among younger people

65+ will not benefit from herd immunity, esp. in nursing homes.

4/ because of personalized treatment needed for people with comorbidities, and because of the large health-care demand from 64 and younger in the big wave from now - Nov, 65+ won't get adequate health care and will see higher than usual fatality rate.

5/ market: because 99% 0-64 year old will survive, re-opening will be pushed forward, and large fiscal/monetary stimulus are already in place.

large-cap companies (sans transportation) will bounce, regardless of short-term earning etc.

6/ market: in intermediate term (1-4 years), expect high inflation from fiscal/monetary stimulus (dollar devaluation) and from decoupling from China (wage inflation for real this time).

7/ election: paradoxically, premature re-opening will

1. force working-age people to gain herd immunity --> less fear of voting in Nov
2. allow people from reopened states to compare their mortality rate with those from more cautious states, and hold their governor accountable.

FIN/ 3. lock down 65+ at home and reduce their turn out, since
a. mail-in ballots are being restricted.
b. nov. election will be a superspreading event from immune naive group (65+ folks at that time)