Quality adjusted life years, and their worth in dollar terms, have gotten a lot of attention in terms of how we should think about the costs of the lockdown.

This is a bad idea.

QALYs work best when you are allocating resources across competing programs. Eg should we fund a new drug on the PBS or a new hospital? [2/n]

Both options cost the budget $’s and both (hopefully) save lives. A QALY based analysis can help maximise the number of lives saved per $ spent – which is an extremely good idea!
[3/n]

But this is not the trade-off faced in a lockdown, because the restaurant industry is not a substitute for the healthcare industry.
[4/n]

Opening up pubs and restaurants may well produce more income or GDP!

But these wealth cannot be transferred directly into healthcare resources or funding – except in the long term.
[5/n]

In the short run $ in different sectors are not equally valuable.
[6/n]

We know what sectors will actually save lives. We’ve called them essential services and kept them open.

QALYs ignore the massive change in relative prices that has occured in the past couple of months and will lead you to make terrible choices.
[7/7]