Oil is deflationary. Soft commodities look like they are going to follow suit and the US farmer is sadly going to be driven into bankruptcy, just like the shale patch...

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Here is the monthly log chart of Corn. Horrific. It probably gets to $200.

And here are Soy Beans...$450?

And here is Sugar...$4?

And here is the CRB Raw Industrial Materials Index (not oil or gas). It looks like they will halve from here...

I just don't see how CPI or core CPI stays positive.

I think real rates will go up. That is the worst possible outcome.

Debt + Deflation = A Ticket to Bankruptcy.