Jared Polis opens up today's press conference with praise for the Broncos and their philanthropy. He was wearing a Broncos mask.

449 deaths in Colorado. But hospital bed use is stable and even declining slightly. Polis credits success of stay-at-home.

Eagle County has asked to lift its stay-at-home order. They were hard hit early as a mountain resort area, with at least 7 deaths. But hospitalizations declining, testing is ramped up.

Polis is expecting to be there later this week to sign the reopening.

New epidemiological model predicts that 65,000 to 75,000 people have COVID-19 in Colorado, about 1.1% to 1.3% of the population. #covid19colorado

"This data gives us a bigger picture, a better picture of really what transmission here in the state looks like." - Rachel Herlihy, Colorado state epidemiologist

Just about 10k directly identified cases, but the model estimates the true number in the general public.

Daily hospitalizations

Herlihy says that social distancing alone still results in Colorado exceeding current ICU bed capacity. Here's what they're modeling with different scenarios.

Polis: "We need to figure out how to run the marathon, now that we've run the sprint." Referring to restrictions starting to ease 4/27.

"I hate to break it to you, but the easy part was the sprint." #covid19colorado

So the major options for Colorado after 4/27 include:
- continued mask wearing
- relaxed but continuing social distancing
- continuing strong isolation for older ppl
- improved case detection and tracing (testing!)

He says we're averaging about 75% to 80% social distancing. We'll need to keep up 60% to 65% for "months, a month, two months ... for a while."

Looks like "Stay at Home" soon becomes "Safer at Home" for the general public.

Here’s the roadmap for Colorado folks

Polis continues to remind that social interactions are "Russian roulette" for older and vulnerable people. Grim.

Much more detail on Colorado next phase

Part 2

Part 3

NEW: Next phase for Colorado
- Retailers reopen with curbside service
- Offices reopen 50% capacity
- Elective medical + dental opens
- Childcare open
- Schools closed
- Personal services open (haircuts!!!)
- Home showings resume
- Restaurants "explore" limited reopening mid-May

All those potential reopenings would happen with "strict precautions." Think reduced seating, barriers, spacing.

Polis: "In a big, diverse state, there should not be one statewide approach." So this opens up ability for counties to modify controls at the local level.

How far will they be allowed to go?

"it's not a time fro anxiety. it's not a time for fear. it's time for caution. it's a time for informed decisions. it's a time for calculated risks." And it's a time to think about the long haul, Polis says.

If you can minimize leaving the house through all of May "you're lucky, you're blessed."

Polis: "Nobody likes to be told they can't do something ... Now it enters the time of personal responsibility."

We've only gotten this far b/c people being responsible, governor says.

I asked Polis about testing. He describes testing as a part of the next phase, but not much detail on the rollout. They're trying to scale up testing, but he basically describes it as one tool -- not a prerequisite for reopening.

Says basically that it's too late and we're not in a position where mass testing could eradicate the virus, unlike a few nations.

Polis notes "another shortcoming of testing:" asymptomatic spreaders. He says there will never be enough capacity to test and contain those cases "in any realistic scenario."

Polis household is eating PB&J for dinner, he says.