Now is a great time to remind folks about how we released people in the past to keep the prison population under control. See this study by Shelly Messinger and his colleagues from 1985 about California.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/3053395?seq=1">https://www.jstor.org/stable/30...
Back in the early 1970s, criminologists began theorizing what they called the "stability of punishment." Our incarceration rate was stable for most of the 20th C, barring major events like the Depression or WWII. (This is right before mass incarceration started.)
The leading article on this topic was Blumstein and Cohen& #39;s (1973) piece. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1142990 ">https://www.jstor.org/stable/11...
The stability of punishment thesis was soundly disproven, first by Berk et al. (including Messinger) and later by mass incarceration. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2095080?seq=1">https://www.jstor.org/stable/20...
Why did incarceration rates appear so stable? Correctional officials and other CJ folks used a variety of mechanisms, including parole, to avoid overcrowding. Here& #39;s the big piece by Berk et al. (again with Messinger) from 1983. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3053488?seq=1">https://www.jstor.org/stable/30...
Of course, the story isn& #39;t going to be the same across the country. A great indicator is @MichelleSPhelps& #39;s study of probation, showing that some places build up their community corrections and prison pops, but others build up one and not the other. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1462474516649174">https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/1...
But it bears repeating how old the strategy of releasing prisoners early for administrative reasons (like overcrowding) is.
In terms of what this could do the crime rate, a great example is California& #39;s Realignment effort which resulted from an overcrowding-induced/exacerbated health care crisis. The cases are discussed in @JonathanSimon59& #39;s Mass Incarceration on Trial. https://www.amazon.com/Mass-Incarceration-Trial-Remarkable-Decision/dp/1620972549">https://www.amazon.com/Mass-Inca...
Numerous scholars have evaluated the apparent effect of the large-scale releases on California& #39;s crime rate. Here& #39;s a study by Magnus Lofstrom and Steve Raphael. The answer is no or very little effect on some types of crime. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0002716215599732">https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/1...
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