NEW: Mon 20 April update of coronavirus trajectories

Daily deaths
• Still too early to say if US has peaked
• But beginning to look like UK has https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇬🇧" title="Flag of United Kingdom" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of United Kingdom">
• Successes in dark blue: Australia, Norway, Austria locked down early; gentle slopes

Live charts http://ft.com/coronavirus-latest">https://ft.com/coronavir...
Why do I say UK daily deaths may have peaked?

New chart: week-on-week change in daily deaths.

This gets rid of weekly reporting patterns and asks, are more people dying than at same point last week?

In UK, blue bars mean we’re now seeing *fewer* deaths than same day last week.
Main caveat there: this data is covid-deaths in hospitals only.

My colleagues @ChrisGiles_, @gillplimmer1 & @federicacocco showed that we’ve seen a huge spike in UK care home deaths, but they’re not being recorded as covid deaths [yet?] https://www.ft.com/content/9d6b46e2-55f4-4de1-ba21-f1ab9f14bcbf">https://www.ft.com/content/9...
Death toll in UK care homes from coronavirus may be 6,000, study estimates

50% jump seen in fatalities of frail and elderly, but only a few recorded as Covid-related on death certificate

https://www.ft.com/content/9d6b46e2-55f4-4de1-ba21-f1ab9f14bcbf
Other things to note with this chart:
• Germany yet to clearly go into reduction phase, but the peak of its daily deaths acceleration was far lower than in any other country here
• US daily deaths are decelerating, but need more time to declare reduction phase clearly underway
Another version here, including emerging market countries for contrast, and giving each country a unique vertical scale, so we can easily compare curves:

Brazil, Russia and Turkey all struggling to turn the corner; week-on-week increase in daily deaths yet to consistently slow.
Now back to cumulative deaths:
• US death is highest worldwide and still rising fast https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Chart with upwards trend" aria-label="Emoji: Chart with upwards trend">
• UK curve still matching Italy’s
• Australia still looks promising

All charts: http://ft.com/coronavirus-latest">https://ft.com/coronavir...
Now daily new cases:
• Feels increasingly safe to say daily confirmed infections in US have peaked, though descent from peak is very slow
• New cases falling in four countries that acted early: New Zealand, Australia, Norway, Austria

All charts: http://ft.com/coronavirus-latest">https://ft.com/coronavir...
Cases in cumulative form:
• US curve beginning to taper?
• Turkey still battling a severe outbreak
• Japan has now passed Korea’s total, Singapore has passed Japan’s curve: both show the danger of thinking a country has dealt with covid

All charts: http://ft.com/coronavirus-latest">https://ft.com/coronavir...
Subnational region daily deaths:
• NY daily confirmed covid deaths now descending (we’re excluding nursing homes for consistency)
• Daily London deaths also appear to have peaked

All charts: http://ft.com/coronavirus-latest">https://ft.com/coronavir...
Subnational death tolls cumulatively:
• NY curve tapering, but has passed Lombardy for world’s highest subnational death toll

All charts: http://ft.com/coronavirus-latest">https://ft.com/coronavir...
Covid outbreaks are better understood at a regional level than national, so here are >100 subnational regions:
• Rio de Janeiro https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Chart with upwards trend" aria-label="Emoji: Chart with upwards trend">
• 31 US states now shown
• Sicily, Sardinia, Balearics, Canaries all low curves: do islands fare better?

All charts: http://ft.com/coronavirus-latest">https://ft.com/coronavir...
Small multiples for daily new deaths in countries:
• Norway locked down while Sweden didn’t; Norway’s daily death toll rising much more slowly than Sweden’s
• Australia faring well so far
• In Europe, Austria, Denmark & Norway faring well

All charts: http://ft.com/coronavirus-latest">https://ft.com/coronavir...
Small multiples for daily cases in 78 countries:
• Bangladesh https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Chart with upwards trend" aria-label="Emoji: Chart with upwards trend">
• Early action in Australia & New Zealand may have turned corner https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇦🇺" title="Flag of Australia" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Australia">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇳🇿" title="Flag of New Zealand" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of New Zealand">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📉" title="Chart with downwards trend" aria-label="Emoji: Chart with downwards trend">
• Austria & Norway locked down early; new cases falling
• Watch as countries relax lockdowns https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👀" title="Eyes" aria-label="Emoji: Eyes">

All charts: http://ft.com/coronavirus-latest">https://ft.com/coronavir...
Small multiples for daily cases in 78 countries:• Bangladesh https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable=• Early action in Australia & New Zealand may have turned corner https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇦🇺" title="Flag of Australia" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Australia">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇳🇿" title="Flag of New Zealand" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of New Zealand">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📉" title="Chart with downwards trend" aria-label="Emoji: Chart with downwards trend">• Austria & Norway locked down early; new cases falling• Watch as countries relax lockdowns https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👀" title="Eyes" aria-label="Emoji: Eyes">All charts: https://ft.com/coronavir..." title="Small multiples for daily cases in 78 countries:• Bangladesh https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Chart with upwards trend" aria-label="Emoji: Chart with upwards trend">• Early action in Australia & New Zealand may have turned corner https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇦🇺" title="Flag of Australia" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Australia">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇳🇿" title="Flag of New Zealand" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of New Zealand">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📉" title="Chart with downwards trend" aria-label="Emoji: Chart with downwards trend">• Austria & Norway locked down early; new cases falling• Watch as countries relax lockdowns https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👀" title="Eyes" aria-label="Emoji: Eyes">All charts: https://ft.com/coronavir..." class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>
I talk a lot about whether or not peaks have been reached.

A good metric for this is hospitalisations:
• More reliable than confirmed cases (not influenced by testing regimes)
• Shorter lag than deaths

So here are some charts showing hospitalisations in various countries:
First, Italy:

Colour = phase of outbreak
• Red: more new hospitalisations every day than day before
• Orange: total hospitalisations rising, but rate of increase slowing
• Blue: fewer people in hospital than before

Almost all Italian regions now in "reduction" phase :-)
Next, Spain:
• Madrid now firmly in "reduction" phase, Catalonia fighting to stay in reduction
• I’ve removed other Spanish regions due to problems with their hospitalisation data made clear to me today (thanks to those who raised this)
France:
• Rate of increase in hospitalisations dropping across the board, and some regions beginning to see total occupancy fall including epicentres Ile de France & Grand Est
US:
• Hospitalisation data patchy from state to state
• NY & Louisiana both in the "reduction" phase, hospital bed occupancy dropping https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👍" title="Thumbs up" aria-label="Emoji: Thumbs up">
• Rate of acceleration falling in NJ & Colorado, hopefully soon net reduction
• Connecticut still has a way to go before occupancy falls
Great Britain:
• Hospitals in every region now have fewer covid patients than same time last week https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👍" title="Thumbs up" aria-label="Emoji: Thumbs up">
• Suggests UK is at or near peak for new confirmed infections, though UK testing is still lagging, and care homes of course absent from this view
Stockholm:
• Remember Sweden has not locked down like most places. Social gatherings still common.
• But data show steady deceleration in new hospitalisations
• Daily hospital beds occupied now unchanged vs last week, and on course for net week-on-week reduction very soon
Wrapping up: our focus has now shifted to tracking excess all-cause mortality (numbers of people dying for any reason at all) as we think this avoids pitfalls of different countries’ covid-death reporting methodologies.

So my call-out tonight is:
Please point me to data on all-cause mortality (total numbers of deaths from all causes) in your country, by week, up to and including recent weeks https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🙏" title="Folded hands" aria-label="Emoji: Folded hands">

Reply here, email coronavirus-data@ft.com or add a link to this spreadsheet: #gid=0">https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1l7JD_rE9KhmI96_6PgnM4hbSdA2zmOExzKAdCxCer8c/edit #gid=0">https://docs.google.com/spreadshe...
Crowdsourced official overall mortality data for @jburnmurdoch

Sheet1 Country,Source,Contacts,Provided by: Afghanistan Albania Algeria Andorra Angola Antigua and Barbuda Argentina Armenia Australia,https://www.abs.gov.au/Causes-of-Death,https://twitter.com/lin...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1l7JD_rE9KhmI96_6PgnM4hbSdA2zmOExzKAdCxCer8c/edit#gid=0
Final bits:

Here’s a video where I explain why we’re using log scales, showing absolute numbers instead of per capita, and much more: https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1244519429825802240">https://twitter.com/janinegib...
And a chart showing why we& #39;re using absolute numbers rather than population-adjusted rates: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1249821596199596034">https://twitter.com/jburnmurd...
Please email coronavirus-data@ft.com with feedback, requests & subnational data.

All of these are invaluable, and we incorporate your suggestions and data every day.

We’ll keep getting back to as many people as possible.

Have a good night, folks :-)
You can follow @jburnmurdoch.
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