NEW: Colorado estimates 1.1-1.3% of the popoulation has had COVID-19 (65,000-75,000 people). The state has passed 10k confirmed cases and has 444 known deaths. CDPHE is giving a briefing. I’ll thread details here. #9News #COVID19Colorado

This is the general idea of the model Colorado is using.

CDPHE says this demonstrates how cases have plateaued with social distancing measures.

State modelers say social distancing alone will not be enough to keep COVID-19 cases within ICU capacity. Adding additional distancing for older Coloradans and mask wearing still don’t get the job done. Modelers say case identification and isolation will be needed.

Scenario F is the all hands on deck approach.

NEW: I asked Colorado‘s state epidemiologist what testing rate CO needs to lift social distancing. She said CO is doing 1,000-2,000 tests/day. Said the state wants to increase testing until all symptomatic individuals can be tested. Didnt give hard number. #9News #COVID19Colorado

NEW: Colorado’s modelers say we are at 75-80% reduction in contacts (social distancing). Model says social distancing must be maintained at 55% or higher to stay under ICU need through November. #9News #COVID19Colorado

The percentages give you an idea of the ongoing social distancing and resultant societal disruption that public health experts are going to recommend be maintained for the remainder of the year.

The briefing has ended. Several of us were unsuccessful in attempts to get specifics from the state on how much testing must be increased to allow for loosen social distancing rules in their models. Will keep asking for that answer.

Big picture:

The modeling being used by the state of Colorado calls for immense disruptions to life as we knew it through at least the end of 2020 if we are to avoid surpassing ICU capacity when COVID-19 cases surge with limited societal reopening.

#9News #COVID19Colorado

Colorado‘s known 444 COVID-19 deaths is not likely to be the precise number for various reasons, and the estimated number of cases is just that, but the CFR (case fatality rate) based on the state’s numbers is 0.59-0.68%. The CFR for seasonal flu is 0.1%. #9News #COVID19Colorado