Read on Twitter
Capitalism is in trouble, but not from @BernieSanders.. Instead, it faces:
- Rapidly
population growth across 
- Insufficient consumption & excess savings
- Monopolization across sectors, led by
- Changing social expectations that limit business' maneuverability
- Rapidly
population growth across - Insufficient consumption & excess savings
- Monopolization across sectors, led by
- Changing social expectations that limit business' maneuverability
The population angle has been covered very well by @PeterZeihan as early as 2013.
Fertility rates across has been falling for decades. Developed world is below replacement, & even developing countries like 
& 
are below 
.
Fertility rates across
has been falling for decades. Developed world is below replacement, & even developing countries like & are below .
Since the days of Columbus there's been an expectation that there will always be more land, more resources, more people.
That expectation is rapidly falling apart, except in a few places like Central America & Africa. Expect much more aggressive interest in those places.
That expectation is rapidly falling apart, except in a few places like Central America & Africa. Expect much more aggressive interest in those places.
The excess savings issue has been 
by @michaelxpettis for at least as long. 
exports 50% of GDP, 
runs a large current account surplus, 's household % of GDP is ~40%, 
only grows from foreign markets.
can't--& won't--lift 
economy forever. https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/51899
by @michaelxpettis for at least as long. exports 50% of GDP, runs a large current account surplus, 's household % of GDP is ~40%, only grows from foreign markets. can't--& won't--lift economy forever. https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/51899
We are ill-suited to understand & deal w/ the issue of excess production b/c for 98% of human history we've had to deal w/ insufficient production instead.
But industrialization has made the former much more likely, e.g. Great Depression.
http://www.tianxiangxiong.com/2019/12/22/whats-wrong-with-996.html
But industrialization has made the former much more likely, e.g. Great Depression.
http://www.tianxiangxiong.com/2019/12/22/whats-wrong-with-996.html
W/ insufficient production, solution is to grow more food, manufacture more goods, etc. People know how to do that; gov't intervention is usually counterproductive.
But w/ excess production,
enter a vicious 
of cutting costs & laying people off, exacerbating the problem.
But w/ excess production,
enter a vicious of cutting costs & laying people off, exacerbating the problem.
"But let the market sort it out!" the lonely libertarian cries. "Less efficient businesses will be culled and the market will rebalance".
On a small scale, perhaps. If there are too many restaurants in a 
, some will shut down. But if there's too much 
& 
& 
...
On a small scale, perhaps. If there are too many
restaurants in a , some will shut down. But if there's too much & & ...
The "culling" will not merely be of a few businesses, but of a large % of society.
It's a mirror to the insufficient production problem, analogous to saying that a shortage of food can be fixed by some people not eating. Arithmetically yes--but good luck seeing that through.
It's a mirror to the insufficient production problem, analogous to saying that a shortage of food can be fixed by some people not eating. Arithmetically yes--but good luck seeing that through.
The monopoly issue has been written about by @matthewstoller is what I'd say is a very selective but nonetheless still informative reading of history.
Monopoly is perhaps most salient in
, but exists even in old industries like 
. https://twitter.com/xiongtx/status/1252292532173602818?s=20
Monopoly is perhaps most salient in
, but exists even in old industries like . https://twitter.com/xiongtx/status/1252292532173602818?s=20
The 
is what is sustaining monopolies.
One reason must be the high barrier to entry that bureaucracies have produced. Look at "too big to fail"
--they've actually consolidated their positions since '08 b/c only the largest institutions could meet regulatory requirements.
is what is sustaining monopolies.One reason must be the high barrier to entry that bureaucracies have produced. Look at "too big to fail"
--they've actually consolidated their positions since '08 b/c only the largest institutions could meet regulatory requirements.
The issue of how to tackle monopolies has no right, let alone simple answer. But the likes of @HawleyMO & other young politicians are starting to address them.
One starting point is goal-oriented rather than process-oriented regulation. https://twitter.com/xiongtx/status/1210721666101211137?s=20
One starting point is goal-oriented rather than process-oriented regulation. https://twitter.com/xiongtx/status/1210721666101211137?s=20
It's no secret that extant large players have an outsized role in determining what the processes are. lobby hard to make sure compliance standards adhere closely to what they're already doing.
Goals are a fairer standard--I don't care how you do it, just get it done!
lobby hard to make sure compliance standards adhere closely to what they're already doing.Goals are a fairer standard--I don't care how you do it, just get it done!
The last issue of changing social expectations ties everything together.
Up to & including the Great Depression, failures were common. Recession meant 
to withdraw your 
; if you're too late, you lost your savings. That's simply intolerable today. https://twitter.com/xiongtx/status/1252112527422447619?s=20
Up to & including the Great Depression,
failures were common. Recession meant to withdraw your ; if you're too late, you lost your savings. That's simply intolerable today. https://twitter.com/xiongtx/status/1252112527422447619?s=20
During the current #WuhanCoronavirus it's simply expected that gov't will pay unemployment & bail out businesses large & small.
Societies will simply not tolerate what they did 100 yrs. ago, when families moved into shantytowns at the first
of layoffs.
Societies will simply not tolerate what they did 100 yrs. ago, when families moved into shantytowns at the first
of layoffs.
This reduces the possibilities of businesses to deal w/ crises.
In the early days of the Depression Henry Ford first tried cutting prices & raising wages to boost demand; when it became clear that this was bigger than, he laid 2/3 of @Ford's 
off.
Try doing that today!
In the early days of the Depression Henry Ford first tried cutting prices & raising wages to boost demand; when it became clear that this was bigger than
, he laid 2/3 of @Ford's off.Try doing that today!
