A large number of Turkistan Islamic Party fighters are being moved to... not to the front lines with the Syrian Arab Army, but Turkey. For the past few days, accompanied by their families, many TIP members have been smuggled across the Turkish border. Why? What does this imply?
A military campaign earlier this year secured the entire M5 highway for Damascus, a major victory for the state's economy. In accordance with a Russian-Turkish understanding, another operation may soon follow to open up another such road.
Afterwards, it is agreed that the remaining area will fall under the same level of Turkish influence as currently exists in Azaz, Jarabulus, Afrin, Tal Abyad, and Ras al-Ayn. Can you perceive any potential issues with this plan?
Groups such as HTS, TIP, and Hurras al-Din constitute a supermajority of fighters in greater Idlib, and they don't hold warm views towards Turkey and its allies. Neither Russia nor Turkey are satisfied with these gangs dominating any section of Syria. How can this be resolved?
Did you know HTS is effectively considered a terror group by Turkey? It is undeniable that Turkish pressure is mounting on HTS leadership to dissolve the organisation. Rumours persist that negotiations to this end are ongoing, and that some fighters may join the ranks of the SNA.
Another significant concentration of anti-Turkey groups finds its home in a remote, mountainous corner of Syria at the tripoint between the Latakia, Idlib, and Hama governorates - the "Emirate of Kabani." Did you know that village happens to lie south of the M4 highway?
It cannot be understated how many TIP members brought their family to Syria, or started families here, and are now living comfortably in the former homes of Christians in the towns and villages of the western part of Idlib. Yet, they are now choosing to leave the country. Why?
Clearly much of the TIP sees no place for itself in Idlib's future and has no interest in being involved in the new order that will rule there. They don't intend to join the SNA or fight for the foreign policy interests of the Turkish state over their own goals as an organisation
This is the how extremism will be eliminated in Idlib. It would be pointless for any militia - even HTS - to try to stand up to the military might of the TSK.