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Important data here from @jhaushofer & collaborators, comparing actual attitudes with (mis-)perceptions about attitudes:
Should we stop social gatherings?
97% say yes
but they think only 67% believe this.
Should we close stores?
77% say yes
but think only 63% believe this.
Should we stop social gatherings?
97% say yes
but they think only 67% believe this.
Should we close stores?
77% say yes
but think only 63% believe this.
They document a clear pattern in which a robust supermajority of the public want strict shutdown measures, but when you ask them what they think others believe, they mis-perceive that others are less likely to share these beliefs.
Full paper is here: https://psyarxiv.com/3kfmh
Full paper is here: https://psyarxiv.com/3kfmh
Here's why this might really matter:
Politicians respond to their perceptions of public opinion. If pols mis-perceive that their voters are less pro-shutdown than they actually are, then their imaginations are inventing a constituency to relax the shutdowns.
Politicians respond to their perceptions of public opinion. If pols mis-perceive that their voters are less pro-shutdown than they actually are, then their imaginations are inventing a constituency to relax the shutdowns.
It's possible that the anti-shutdown movement isn't being driven by what voters want, but by misperceptions of what they want.
Read the paper: It's stunning just how united the global public is in the fights against coronavirus.
Read the paper: It's stunning just how united the global public is in the fights against coronavirus.
Some complementary evidence: Trump's approval has tanked in synch with his musing about re-opening the economy.
He thinks he's reflecting popular sentiment.
This paper suggests that may be a mistake. In reality, people are on board with an aggressive shutdown to beat the virus.
He thinks he's reflecting popular sentiment.
This paper suggests that may be a mistake. In reality, people are on board with an aggressive shutdown to beat the virus.
