Ontario officials have released new modelling which predicts that the total cumulative cases during the this wave of the COVID-19 pandemic will be less than 20,000. That is much better than the 80,000 expected cases that were projected in modelling released earlier this month.

Officials say that they believe Ontario is at the peak of the outbreak and is now at a place where it is seeing roughly the same number of cases every day.

Matthew Anderson, the head of Ontario Health, says that the number of patients in ICU beds is now “trending better than our best case scenario.”

“What this would tell us is that we are tracking to the best case scenario. The implication is that our public health measures are working and we need to keep them working,” Anderson says.

“We can now start to look at how do we bring back the rest of the healthcare system. In particular we are looking at elective procedures,” Anderson says.