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It's great we're flattening the curve but what if it doesn't go back down?
If every happy recovery is replaced by a new infection (R of ~1)...
We could be stuck on a plateau - with a rolling few million people infected, causing 1-2,000 deaths every day for months.
1/ Thread:
If every happy recovery is replaced by a new infection (R of ~1)...
We could be stuck on a plateau - with a rolling few million people infected, causing 1-2,000 deaths every day for months.
1/ Thread:
First, the optimistic evidence.
Symptom self-report indicates #Lockdown might have reduced # infections by 70% since peak of 1 Apr.
https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
Still implies ~1.5-2m total infected so way too early to ease lockdown - but good trend!
@timspector @Join_ZOE
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Symptom self-report indicates #Lockdown might have reduced # infections by 70% since peak of 1 Apr.
https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
Still implies ~1.5-2m total infected so way too early to ease lockdown - but good trend!
@timspector @Join_ZOE
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Next, the charts. Just visually, Italy, Spain, France (and Iran) have seen flattening and a gentle reduction from peak, but then maybe plateaus rather than strong reductions?
Based on this tracker, UK response is still less stringent than Fr/It:
https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/coronavirus-government-response-tracker
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Based on this tracker, UK response is still less stringent than Fr/It:
https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/coronavirus-government-response-tracker
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UK lockdown weaker than It/Sp/Fr, but they're still seeing cases rise. Doubled in last 17-22 days ( @OurWorldInData).
Need to remove "recoveries" to estimate live infection levels, but likely flat rather than lowered?
UK doesn't report recoveries!, so can only model these.
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Need to remove "recoveries" to estimate live infection levels, but likely flat rather than lowered?
UK doesn't report recoveries!, so can only model these.
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UK case growth has dropped since #Lockdown, but now stuck at ~5-6% per day. Why would it reduce further now we're a month into lockdown?
I hope doing more testing is hiding a real further slowing.
Also, we are nearing point where daily recoveries should offset new cases.
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I hope doing more testing is hiding a real further slowing.
Also, we are nearing point where daily recoveries should offset new cases.
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That still implies we're holding the real number of infections but haven't yet begun to reduce it.
Deaths are more reliable (although understated by 1.5-2x given non-hosp / reporting lags / undiagnosed) - but lagged in time.
Also stubbornly stuck at ~6% daily increase.
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Deaths are more reliable (although understated by 1.5-2x given non-hosp / reporting lags / undiagnosed) - but lagged in time.
Also stubbornly stuck at ~6% daily increase.
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Most important data is the true % infected.
Random pop sample testing could tell us in days. Govt say they've been doing since end Feb but no results yet published.
In meantime, we can estimate from deaths.
@Imperial_JIDEA estimate 4.19% (2.8m) but only use hosp deaths.
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Random pop sample testing could tell us in days. Govt say they've been doing since end Feb but no results yet published.
In meantime, we can estimate from deaths.
@Imperial_JIDEA estimate 4.19% (2.8m) but only use hosp deaths.
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My top-down estimate using adjusted death toll suggested 5.5m (8.8%) as of 10 Apr.
Higher concentrations in urban centres.
https://twitter.com/JamieWoodhouse/status/1248661153603084289?s=20
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Higher concentrations in urban centres.
https://twitter.com/JamieWoodhouse/status/1248661153603084289?s=20
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Without understanding true numbers infected, there's a risk we fail to tighten #Lockdown (may be needed if on plateau) or, even worse, relax lockdown too early.
Doing the former makes our current flat wave longer. Doing the latter makes it even higher.
#HerdImmunity again.
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Doing the former makes our current flat wave longer. Doing the latter makes it even higher.
#HerdImmunity again.
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Best way, for people + economy, is:
#Lockdown hard enough
Relax (carefully) only when we're sure infected numbers v.low (sample test!) + 
ready
Test/trace/quar at scale to spot + stop new outbreaks before we lose control (again)
Drugs then vaccine.
10\\ END
#Lockdown hard enough Relax (carefully) only when we're sure infected numbers v.low (sample test!) + ready Test/trace/quar at scale to spot + stop new outbreaks before we lose control (again) Drugs then vaccine.10\\ END
+ Hospitalisation data also seems more positive re: trend...
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1250904238399598594?s=20
Of course, says little about non-hospital deaths, but hope it's still a meaningful indicator of total infections coming down.
h/t @StefanFSchubert + @jburnmurdoch
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1250904238399598594?s=20
Of course, says little about non-hospital deaths, but hope it's still a meaningful indicator of total infections coming down.
h/t @StefanFSchubert + @jburnmurdoch
This pic sums up the risk of an early #Lockdown relaxation beautifully...
Thanks @JKFanghanel https://twitter.com/JKFanghanel/status/1252508742203117568?s=20
Thanks @JKFanghanel https://twitter.com/JKFanghanel/status/1252508742203117568?s=20
