Read on Twitter
Recent serology studies may be wrong. But if wrong, they‘re all wrong *in the same direction.*
Finnish: 20-50x undercount
Scottish: 27-55x
Stanford: 50-85x
Italian: 30x
Mass: 17x
Germany: 0.37% CFR
Denmark: 0.21%
If true, COVID19 has much more spread and much lower fatality.
Finnish: 20-50x undercount
Scottish: 27-55x
Stanford: 50-85x
Italian: 30x
Mass: 17x
Germany: 0.37% CFR
Denmark: 0.21%
If true, COVID19 has much more spread and much lower fatality.
We are still very far from herd immunity.
And because it’s novel, it can still overwhelm the hospital system.
Sources:
https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/17561-thl-coronavirus-may-have-infected-dozens-of-times-more-in-finland.html
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.13.20060467v1.full.pdf
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/
https://covmodel.org/2020/04/17/sars-cov-2-preliminary-serology-test-reports-from-scotland-denmark-and-finland-give-contradictory-results-on-infection-fatality-ratio/
And because it’s novel, it can still overwhelm the hospital system.
Sources:
https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/17561-thl-coronavirus-may-have-infected-dozens-of-times-more-in-finland.html
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.13.20060467v1.full.pdf
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/
https://covmodel.org/2020/04/17/sars-cov-2-preliminary-serology-test-reports-from-scotland-denmark-and-finland-give-contradictory-results-on-infection-fatality-ratio/
To be fair, all serology tests, if biased, would bias the same way. When the actual percent infected is low and population samples are small, false positives will have an outsized impact compared to false negatives. But none of these shows less than a 10x undercount.
https://twitter.com/tejlgaard/status/1252195899305979904?s=21 https://twitter.com/tejlgaard/status/1252195899305979904
https://twitter.com/deltav_/status/1252200032637382658?s=21 https://twitter.com/deltav_/status/1252200032637382658
Dutch serology study (under 70 only though) says 0.08% IFR.
https://twitter.com/rf_hfc/status/1252202111603027968?s=21 https://twitter.com/rf_hfc/status/1252202111603027968
https://twitter.com/rf_hfc/status/1252202111603027968?s=21 https://twitter.com/rf_hfc/status/1252202111603027968
