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Recent serology studies may be wrong. But if wrong, they‘re all wrong *in the same direction.*
Finnish: 20-50x undercount
Scottish: 27-55x
Stanford: 50-85x
Italian: 30x
Mass: 17x
Germany: 0.37% CFR
Denmark: 0.21%
If true, COVID19 has much more spread and much lower fatality.
Finnish: 20-50x undercount
Scottish: 27-55x
Stanford: 50-85x
Italian: 30x
Mass: 17x
Germany: 0.37% CFR
Denmark: 0.21%
If true, COVID19 has much more spread and much lower fatality.
We are still very far from herd immunity.
And because it’s novel, it can still overwhelm the hospital system.
Sources:
https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/17561-thl-coronavirus-may-have-infected-dozens-of-times-more-in-finland.html
https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/f... href=" https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.13.20060467v1.full.pdf
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/1... href=" https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/1... href=" https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/0... href=" https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/1... href=" https://covmodel.org/2020/04/17/sars-cov-2-preliminary-serology-test-reports-from-scotland-denmark-and-finland-give-contradictory-results-on-infection-fatality-ratio/">https://covmodel.org/2020/04/1...
And because it’s novel, it can still overwhelm the hospital system.
Sources:
https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/17561-thl-coronavirus-may-have-infected-dozens-of-times-more-in-finland.html
To be fair, all serology tests, if biased, would bias the same way. When the actual percent infected is low and population samples are small, false positives will have an outsized impact compared to false negatives. But none of these shows less than a 10x undercount.
https://twitter.com/tejlgaard/status/1252195899305979904?s=21">https://twitter.com/tejlgaard... https://twitter.com/tejlgaard/status/1252195899305979904">https://twitter.com/tejlgaard...
https://twitter.com/deltav_/status/1252200032637382658?s=21">https://twitter.com/deltav_/s... https://twitter.com/deltav_/status/1252200032637382658">https://twitter.com/deltav_/s...
Dutch serology study (under 70 only though) says 0.08% IFR.
https://twitter.com/rf_hfc/status/1252202111603027968?s=21">https://twitter.com/rf_hfc/st... https://twitter.com/rf_hfc/status/1252202111603027968">https://twitter.com/rf_hfc/st...
https://twitter.com/rf_hfc/status/1252202111603027968?s=21">https://twitter.com/rf_hfc/st... https://twitter.com/rf_hfc/status/1252202111603027968">https://twitter.com/rf_hfc/st...
https://twitter.com/19651029ab/status/1252215726607343617?s=21">https://twitter.com/19651029a... https://twitter.com/19651029ab/status/1252215726607343617">https://twitter.com/19651029a...
