I won't stop repeating this: #Oman's financial troubles are a real threat. They can't be addressed without either 1) upsetting domestic stability or 2) U-turning on regional neutrality. #Europe can help, even without financial assistance 1/ #Gulf #Iran https://bloom.bg/2wRbFvt 

#China did play a useful role in #Oman finances in the recent past but: it was expensive for #Muscat; #Beijing expressed little interest in pushing it forward; #Covid_19 limits that further. I don't think the Dragon is coming now. 2/

With all caveats, Sultan Qaboos was happier w/ #China financial partnership than turning to regional players ( #SaudiArabia, #UAE, #Qatar), fearing political strings. The fact that #US watched from sidelines, after #Muscat helped w/ #JCPOA & #Iran was also a big disappointment. 3/

#SultanHaitham also jealous of #Oman independence, but w/ #US still absent, the #OilPriceWar, #China reluctant, pressure on finances is too high and aid from #Riyadh, #AbuDhabi, #Doha more appealing. However, with less availability themselves, conditions may be tougher. 4/

Should #Oman go for cutting expenses/structural reforms, #Europe should offer max technical assistance to smoothen impact on stability. This is textbook #EuropeanCommission job. It is #EU interest to protect resilience of the chief regional facilitator w/ #Iran and affiliates 5/5

CCing @glcarlstrom from whom I spotted the Bloomberg article and @ProfessorKaren because always knows what to say in these contexts :)

More on this from @allawati, thanks @ahmed for sharing: https://twitter.com/ahmed/status/1252161331047870464?s=19