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Our @InstituteGC new report on exiting lockdown - a thread https://bit.ly/3ev3t5f
It's striking how nothing short of complete lockdown seems to have worked to control the spread of the virus across Europe (with the exception of Sweden), saving lives and buying time 1/12
It's striking how nothing short of complete lockdown seems to have worked to control the spread of the virus across Europe (with the exception of Sweden), saving lives and buying time 1/12
But the economic and non-covid health costs are huge, with the OBR suggesting economic activity is down 35%.
We need to develop a sustainable strategy for dealing with the crisis, fast
2/12
We need to develop a sustainable strategy for dealing with the crisis, fast
2/12
Several easing measures we could take: schools first, geographic, sectoral or age segmentation to open the economy
But Imperial's work suggests we have very little headroom on the reproduction number before virus starts accelerating. Just opening schools alone could do it
3/12
But Imperial's work suggests we have very little headroom on the reproduction number before virus starts accelerating. Just opening schools alone could do it
3/12
Without serious offsetting measures, any easing risks flipping the rate of spread and causing a disaster
4/12
4/12
To re-open safely we need a twin-track strategy of containment and shielding. The first tries to hold down R, the second seeks to protect the vulnerable if we fail.
5/12
5/12
The range of options across easing, containment and shielding all have advantages and drawbacks that need to be carefully weighed
6/12
6/12
What are other countries doing? While Europe is lifting some suppression measures, its containment infrastructure looks weak compared to East Asia, risking a new spike in cases and return to lockdown
7/12
7/12
It's hard to capture everything that's going on in different countries, but we've had a go...
8/12
8/12
Uncertainty about when lockdown will be lifted is doing huge economic and social damage - almost as much as the lockdown itself
Gov can't offer certainty about when we'll start getting back to normal. But it can minimise uncertainty by setting out a *contingent* exit plan
9/12
Gov can't offer certainty about when we'll start getting back to normal. But it can minimise uncertainty by setting out a *contingent* exit plan
9/12
Three steps:
1) Put hard metrics on its thresholds for easing
2) Establish different levels of suppression measures conditional on the prevalence of the virus
3) Clarify exactly what different individuals and business will be able to do at each stage
10/12
1) Put hard metrics on its thresholds for easing
2) Establish different levels of suppression measures conditional on the prevalence of the virus
3) Clarify exactly what different individuals and business will be able to do at each stage
10/12
All eyes should be on what gov is doing urgently to build up our containment and shielding capacity which is woefully weak
We may be in for a period of easing-then-tightening restrictions as the spread accelerates, while we make halting progress on the long term strategy..
11/12
We may be in for a period of easing-then-tightening restrictions as the spread accelerates, while we make halting progress on the long term strategy..
11/12
In that world of uncertainty we'll all be able to achieve a higher level of economic, mental and physical health if the government clarifies a contingent exit plan to help us manage it and begin to look to the future
Read our report https://institute.global/sites/default/files/inline-files/A%20Sustainable%20Exit%20Strategy%2C%20Managing%20Uncertainty%2C%20Minimising%20Harm.pdf
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Read our report https://institute.global/sites/default/files/inline-files/A%20Sustainable%20Exit%20Strategy%2C%20Managing%20Uncertainty%2C%20Minimising%20Harm.pdf
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