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It’s tempting to dismiss the protesters in MI, VA, TX, CA, and MN as irrelevant wakadoddles.
That’s a mistake.
Social science research suggests continued protests could effect the 2020 US presidential election in at least 6 ways.
A thread/
That’s a mistake.
Social science research suggests continued protests could effect the 2020 US presidential election in at least 6 ways.
A thread/
Key to note: the protests aren't random. They bear the hallmarks of a right wing populist campaign: anti-elite #FireFauci, xenophobia #ChineseCoronaVirus, conspiracy (virus originated in Wuhan lab), hostility to international institutions #WHOLiedPeopleDied, coordinated w/Fox etc
Some evidence suggests the protests are what scholars call an “astroturf campaign” where sponsors are masked. There’s coordinated messaging, similar websites and domains registered at the same time. In other words: may be orchestrated by Trump allies. https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/04/19/pro-gun-activists-using-facebook-groups-push-anti-quarantine-protests/
If the protests continue and grow, social movement scholars suggest we’ll see 6+ effects:
1- Continued protests will boost conservative turnout in Nov 2020. Tea Party events in April 2009 “led to more Republican votes in the 2010 midterm elections… .1% point increase in the share of the population protesting corresponds to 1.9% point increase in share of GOP votes.”
2 - Continued protests will help frame the 2020 election as a choice between the pro-open economy Trump, or the Washington insider #BeijingBiden who is complicit in China’s efforts to hurt working class Americans through the #ChineseCoronaVirus.
This framing shapes voter behavior. Experimental research shows frames encouraging individuals to consider political problems in terms of dispositional blame prompts populist voting while encouragement to consider these same problems situationally doesn't https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/701832?journalCode=jop
3- Continued protests will polarize the electorate. Research by McVeigh, Cunningham and Farrell (ASR 2014) demonstrates “Radical social movements can exacerbate tensions in local settings while drawing attn to how movement goals align with political party agenda.”
Using county level data on the KKK, the authors show radical social movements have lasting political effects.
4- Continued protests will distract the electorate. If the election is a fight between Trump vs Governors who refuse to open their economies, Trump doesn’t have to defend his record on COVID-19. He's an advocate for liberty! https://video.foxnews.com/v/6150594321001
5 - Continued protests will help Trump rebuild his coalition of 2016. Scholars of digital social movements emphasize a logic of connective action not collective action; where personalized content sharing across media networks enables coalition building. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118X.2012.670661
These protests have something for everyone: small-business concerns for the working class, anti-elitism for resentful rural whites, fetishism of guns for NRA, dislike of govt for traditional conservatives. It’s a cross-cutting issue even amid a pandemic. https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/newt-gingrich-coronavirus-crisis-makes-some-leaders-believe-they-have-god-like-decision-making-capacity
6 - Continued protests will signal a winning issue for GOP officials, who will further rally behind Trump. Research on elite perception of public opinion suggests that elected officials often fail to accurately perceive their constituent’s views. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055418000011
Protests will signal those views in such as a way as to drive elected official’s behavior, and may be especially important to politicians who have attached themselves to the president’s coattails. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/15/republicans-trump-economy-coronavirus-186452
A final point. This argument will be hard to stomach for anyone aware of how the administration has handled COVID-19. Or anyone that thinks the economy shapes voter behavior. Or anyone who thinks that America’s political culture is functional.
Let me suggest that this argument will be unsurprising to views of Fox who are being flooded with images and stories about the protests, how perfectly Trump has handled COVID-19 and how its a Chinese conspiracy to hurt Americans but Trump is fighting back! Take a gander:
Tucker Carlson attacked MI governor Whitmer over stay at home order https://video.foxnews.com/v/6150431702001
Minnesota demonstrators take stay-at-home protests to governor's residence https://video.foxnews.com/v/6150321268001#sp=show-clips
Sean Hannity on PA protests of the lockdowns https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/1251512305566785536?s=20
Laura Ingraham calling for protests in VA https://twitter.com/IngrahamAngle/status/1251135720380653573?s=20
Coverage of protests in MI https://www.foxnews.com/politics/drivers-swarm-michigan-capital-to-protest-coronavirus-lockdown-measures
Coverage of protests in San Diego: https://www.foxnews.com/us/san-diego-protest-coronavirus-closures-beaches-walking-trails
Protests and rallies across US call for end to coronavirus stay-at-home orders https://fxn.ws/2yryiaa
Michelle Malkin on protests in Denver: https://twitter.com/michellemalkin/status/1251951790700007424?s=20
I could go on, but you get the point.
/fin
/fin
