Let's talk about these B.S. astroturf protests and what they mean for virus transmission...specifically, that they probably mean nothing, and why that's both good and very bad.

I've seen a lot of people talking about how people at these protests are going to get sick, and they might, but they probably won't. It is nearly impossible for us to stop thinking linearly, but if ever there were a time to think in terms of probabilities and exponents, it's now.

Basically no person in the world is at a 0% chance of infection right now. We still have to go get food and receive deliveries. The good news is, we aren't trying to get to 0%, because getting down way below 1% is pretty easy for any non-front-line worker.

Stay six feet apart, wear a mask, limit trips to the grocery store, socially pressure others to do the same. The simple message here is, "You don't want to get sick" but the public health strategy is actually, "We want fewer people getting each other sick."

That sounds the same, but it isn't. Because /if you get sick/, you are likely to ultimately be ultimately responsible for /dozens of other sick people/. Thanks to @XTOTL and @SiouxsieW for this amazing illustration of that:

Ultimately, we aren't really trying to prevent the first infection, we're trying to prevent the dozens (or hundreds) that might follow from it. And by having most people who can stay home, it makes it FAR safer for those who don't.

So, staying home makes it far safer for the people who provide us with food. But it is also far safer for the shit-bags who decide that they can't abide by the injustice of being asked to help society.

Those people are making things far more dangerous for everyone, because if there is someone sick at one of those rallies, the 50 people they make sick could easily infect another 50,000 by the time this is all over. They may be responsible for many many deaths.

But that /probably/ won't happen entirely because the rest of us are making it much safer for them to be idiots.

Fair? No. But also, it's not like anyone wants these people to die, so I'm glad that we're staying home and protecting them.

My worry is that people will say, "Oh, look, those people did the thing and they were fine." Neglecting the reality that:

1. This is a TIIIINY amount of people relative to any normal day of social interaction 2 months ago.

2. They were fine BECAUSE people are staying home.

And so I shall rage at the manufactured idiocy and the injustice that they do it in relative safety because the vast majority of people recognize that WE LIVE IN A SOCIETY.

And I will do it from my home where I am saving far more lives than my own.