Spent some time this weekend geeking out with data from @StreetLightData's VMT Monitor, which tell some interesting stories about the dramatic drop in traffic resulting from the COVID-19 shutdowns. [THREAD] https://www.streetlightdata.com/VMT-monitor-by-county/?fbclid=IwAR0zFtC9G9XeIJh2zUqvUDgr3OBQx9vzYm-H3udjca2XRE6_cwdjUBfYl7g#emergency-map-response

The data go back to March 1 and, as with all new sources of data, deserve big caveats. There are some discrepancies w/FHWA data particularly worth exploring, but the data still provide a useful time-series look at what’s happened. [2/x]

Nationwide, according to StreetLight, VMT has been down by 68 to 72 percent over the last three weeks compared with the first week of March. [3/x]

Northeast and West Coast states were already experiencing 10-15% drops in VMT (relative to the week of 3/1) by the week of March 8. By the following week, VMT was down by 35 to 60% almost everywhere. By the week of 3/22, it had fallen off the cliff. [4/x]

The top states for VMT declines are dominated by those in the Northeast and the upper Midwest. (Again, relative to the week of 3/1) [5/x]

But the data also show that the shutdowns related to COVID-19 have been truly national in scope. In no state was VMT the week of 4/5 more than 40% of what it was at the beginning of March. [6/x]

As for what it all means, assuming that vehicle travel remains at its current level for the rest of April, the VMT reductions in March and April would shave roughly 5% off total VMT for 2020. [7/x]

What happens next, of course, is anyone’s guess. It all depends on the speed of the “reopening” and how long changes in people’s travel habits endure. There are so many variables, it’s almost not worth speculating. [8/x]

The implications, though, are huge. We’re already experiencing cleaner air, fewer crashes, and reduced demand for oil. Second-order effects include things like reduced auto insurance claims and vehicle repair and replacement costs. [9/x]

The question is whether we can preserve at least some of the public health and other benefits of lower VMT in whatever our “new normal” turns out to be. That will require both watchfulness and smarts on the part of policy-makers. [end]