Death rates are deaths relative to known cases. Why would you think that a country’s known case count is really all the cases that a country has? Most countries tested only a 1 fraction of their population. They have easily 5-10 times the amount cases that the limited tests show. https://twitter.com/vicjkim/status/1251692433391271939

. @vicjkim March 23-24 NY tested 25,190 in total for those two days. 10,497 (42.6%) of those were new cases.

On April 14th alone NY tested 26,869 people and 11,571 (43.0%) of those were new cases.

Summary: Known case count merely reflects testing levels. Up it and you’ll C more!

. @vicjkim 39.6% (236,732) of all NY tests (596,532) through April 17th are positives. I doubt highly that 40% NY has Coronavirus (they test only those with symptoms), but to think that NY has only 236K cases now (or S Korea its own known case count) is inaccurate.

45.8% of all tests in NY State were done in NYC and NYC has 55.4% of statewide cases. Basically, a large reason why NYC has all those (known) cases is because a huge portion of testing was done there. The “testing testing testing” skews data (and policy) like crazy.

NYC has a population of 8.7 million people. Its known Coronavirus count is 131,263. That’s 1.5% of the population. Does anyone think that only 1.5 out of 100 people in NYC have Corona when it took weeks to shutdown and it is not even a Spain/Israel-style shutdown? PLEASE!

This is a virus that if you were in the same room where an infected person was hours earlier you were told to stay home for 14 days; no matter how large the room! Companions are locked out of hospital because gov assumes that everyone has Corona and will easily hand it off to

everyone else, so how is only 1.5% of the NYC population infected? Answer: It is likely way higher but not many people were tested. But just as with deaths we count now probables, then so should be done with the overall case count. It’s easily at 10-20 percent of the population.

If 15% of NYC has Coronavirus, that would be 1.31 million people. (A small study of women who were all tested pre-delivery in NYC shows 15.2% had Coronavirus). If 17% needed hospitals (as @NYGovCuomo assumed 5 weeks ago is the rate), it would be 223K. 3% ICU would be 39,000.

Is fifteen percent of NYC infected with Coronavirus? I don’t know.

A) There is the small study.

B) To assume that only 1.5% of NYC is infected because this is the official case count now due to limited testing seems way too low; especially how contagious we are told Corona is.

Cuomo semi-closed NY in large part because he assumsed (see below from March 15) that 17% Coronavirus cases need the hospital and a nice few percent need the ICU. It is clear for many days that those hospital/ICU numbers are way lower. Corona is an issue so we can’t yet go back

to the Jan-Feb lifestyle, but if you closed down a state based on math that is now clear to have been inaccurate, and this lockdown causes mental breakdowns; suicides; and lack of care at homes and at hospitals because family can’t be there, it is time to reconsider. Now!

Summary: While Corona is deadly, the data that led to the lockdowns have been proven to be inaccurate at best, so stop operating under the old math (which you had reason to believe at the time) and adjust accordingly; especially that these policies have consequences.

BTW @LizSpecht wrote early March that the actual Coronavirus count is about 8 times the confirmed number. Ok. So NYC’s confirmed 136K means almost 1.1 million cases. (That 8X claim is a clown stat. What if one city tests 3x more people a day than another city? .)

To answer Cuomo’s question: You owe it to those assumptions being way off to the dark side which may have not been known 4-5 weeks ago (hence the lockdown policies), but it is known for 2-3 weeks already (yet we operate under the notion that the old data is still accurate).

1 TWEET: NY has 243K known cases but if you up testing, look at a study from NYC, add what we were told how contagious Corona is, then easily 10-15% of NY has it but there is no corresponding hospital/ICU rates that “everyone” worked off of 5 wks ago. Adjust policies accordingly.