Winter is now here for venture capital – especially those heavily focused on Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) models where customer acquisition costs are high and there is little brand equity. If you have to continually spend to drive repeat buy, you don’t have real brand equity. (1/10)

Growing revenue at any cost (without a viable business model) and then raising more money to plug losses and pump up the fragile revenue to further support even more spending has become the hot business model of the last decade (this was once called a Ponzi scheme). (2/10)

Before this terrible virus hit, we had already seen the glimpses of the approaching winter with fallen angels such as WeWork, Casper, Brandless and Outdoor Voices. (3/10)

Winter was inevitable as investors incorrectly extrapolated a handful of unicorns with bad process and good outcomes (e.g. http://Jet.com ) and naively thought that “old fashioned businesses” of actually trying to make a profit were obsolete models. (4/10)

This COVID-19 pandemic has ushered in a true, Game of Thrones style winter for venture faster than any of us could have ever imagined. (5/10)

Many high profile companies are going to have massive down-rounds and many will abruptly close like Brandless. Having invested through 2000-2002 and 2008-2009, and having exhaustively studied the past, I can tell you that liquidity and funding dries up virtually overnight. (6/10)

I can also tell you that the survivors who come out of these very dark periods go on to become the business leaders of many generations to come. Amazon declined more than 95% from its peak into 2001, and survived when all the other copycats did not. (7/10)

Apple, like a Phoenix from the ashes, released the first iPod in October, 2001 right after 9/11 and in the heart of the recession when Apple was on the verge of bankruptcy. In very dark business times, survival is paramount. (8/10)

In addition to survival, maintaining a robust, dispassionate process and having good dialogue with your partners is the next most important thing. We are witnessing crazy shit, and we need clear heads and a great process to capitalize on once-in-a-generation opportunities. (9/10)

Like the Shrimping Boat in Forrest Gump, the boats left standing after this hurricane are going to clean up. (10/10)