Read on Twitter
Reading this long thread (with maths lessons) and realising the efforts the author has taken to discredit the alleged arguments of those whom he calls the "testing mafia", I think it warrants a proper response.
So here goes. https://twitter.com/karthiks/status/1250362089585033216
So here goes. https://twitter.com/karthiks/status/1250362089585033216
In most of the first part of the thread, the author talks about the accuracy & reliability of our testing methods explaining false positives, false negatives, prior probability & base rate.
These are accurate explanations but unfortunately irrelevant. https://twitter.com/karthiks/status/1250362093531848710?s=20
These are accurate explanations but unfortunately irrelevant. https://twitter.com/karthiks/status/1250362093531848710?s=20
Why irrelevant? Because the "testing mafia" isn't questioning the accuracy or reliability of testing methods. It's unanimous that we must go ahead with whatever is the current scientific consensus on the same.
It’s the adequacy of the testing that has come under scrutiny.
It’s the adequacy of the testing that has come under scrutiny.
Further, nobody is asking for “random” testing.
The ask is to
a) do meticulous contact-tracing for every single case & test each of them
b) test people who come forward with symptoms
Picking up people from the street and testing them would be stupid. https://twitter.com/karthiks/status/1250362099949133825?s=20
The ask is to
a) do meticulous contact-tracing for every single case & test each of them
b) test people who come forward with symptoms
Picking up people from the street and testing them would be stupid. https://twitter.com/karthiks/status/1250362099949133825?s=20
In the strategy suggested by the author, there are four issues I can see:
1. “India” isn’t doing the testing, every state is doing its own testing. So there is no relevance for generalised statements about the rates of testing happening in “India”. https://twitter.com/karthiks/status/1250362120039878657?s=20
1. “India” isn’t doing the testing, every state is doing its own testing. So there is no relevance for generalised statements about the rates of testing happening in “India”. https://twitter.com/karthiks/status/1250362120039878657?s=20
2. The testing of people with travel history and those who've been in contact with infected people is not upto the mark. There have been cases reported where people were denied testing despite contact, and the author himself admits it here. https://twitter.com/karthiks/status/1250698279169323008?s=20
3. People with symptoms aren't included in the author's list of people to be tested. It’s not enough to test only those with travel history or those who've come in contact with infected people. Community transmission needs to be assumed and anyone with symptoms need to be tested.
4. The last point about “delhi” is part of the "single source" propaganda. Not only is this based on sampling bias (finding out everyone who attended TJ and testing them), it implies TJ was a special event which intentionally did something to further the crisis. (1/3)
There were thousands of people in Tirupati days after the TJ event. There were many in other religious events and other functions including marriages and what not, days before and after TJ. If you search, find out every one of them and test them, you’ll get so many cases. (2/3)
It’s only a basic sampling bias at work here when you target one event, test everyone in it, and it’s being used by bigots (including mainstream media) to shamelessly vilify and target a community in the midst of a pandemic. This isn't helping anyone. (3/3)
Further, “India” isn’t testing people, it is each state which is doing their own testing based on their capacity and quality of governance. No one is questioning the intention of governments, everyone understands that they can only work with the infrastructure that’s available.
But is this enough to tackle the crisis we are in? Probably not, because the curve in case of most states is nowhere close to getting flattened. This is why there is an urgent need for more investment by the state and to do as much as possible to step up the rates of testing.
To conclude, it is not wise to be complacent and trust whatever the government tells you. It is extremely important to scrutinise each and every claim that is presented and to constantly hold discussions about how we can do better.
This is not "distrust" or "fear-mongering".
This is not "distrust" or "fear-mongering".
The attack on those who ask questions must stop.
As Amartya Sen wrote in his recent piece, "Tackling a social calamity is not like fighting a war which works best when a leader can use top-down power to order everyone to do what the leader wants—with no need for consultation."
As Amartya Sen wrote in his recent piece, "Tackling a social calamity is not like fighting a war which works best when a leader can use top-down power to order everyone to do what the leader wants—with no need for consultation."
