In this thread I provide evidence that fewer than half of the 6,112 excess deaths in Week 14 are due to Covid-19. Thus most excess mortality in the UK is due to other causes: perhaps consequences of the lockdown itself, including lack of delivery of ordinary medical care. 1/

The estimate of 6,112 excess deaths comes from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, as part of the Continuous Mortality Investigation. Covid-19 was listed on death certificate for 3475.
https://www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/document/Mortality%20monitor%20Week%2014%202020%20v01%202020-04-14.pdf

The Office for National Statistics previously concluded (link) that of those listed with Covid-19 on their death certificate in March, 86% were caused by Covid-19. Assuming this percentage applies to Week 14, 2,988 were caused by Covid-19. 3/ https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinmarch2020

If there were 6,112 excess deaths and 2,988 were caused by Covid-19, then 3124 were caused by something else. There is corroborating evidence that no more than 2,988 were caused by Covid-19. 4/

One piece of evidence is that there were 2,106 respiratory deaths listed in the Week 14 mortality report of the ONS. This is about 600 more than Week 13 and for average at this time of year. 5/

If Covid-19 kills mainly by attacking the respiratory system, then the fact that there are only 2,106 respiratory deaths in Week 14 implies most of the 6,112 excess deaths were not Covid-19. 6/

Furthermore, it is notable that of the 3,475 deaths where Covid-19 is listed on the death certificate 61% are male and 39% are female. This is consistent with patterns observed in Covid-19 deaths. However, the other deaths are roughly 50% male and 50% female. 7/

Subtracting the deaths where Covid-19 is listed on the death certificate from the total of 16,387 deaths in Week 14 yields 6,668 male deaths and 6,604 female. This is the ordinary 50-50 split observed in all-cause mortality. 8/

The evidence above suggests that the UK experienced 3,124 excess deaths in Week 14 that were not caused by Covid-19, and 2,988 deaths that were. What could have caused the 3,124? 9/

Natasha Azzopardi-Muscat, president of the European Public Health Association, has said: "We fully understand that country health services have had to refocus and prioritize Covid, but we are seeing adverse effects." 10/

Azzopardi-Muscat worries that other health care service is being "crowded out", and "expressed concerns about drops in A&E visitors, and said that some people with chest pain or cardiovascular symptoms were going to hospital too late". 11/ https://shrtm.nu/e1US 

One report says that despite concentrations of Covid-19 patients in some places, 40% of general acute hospital beds in the NHS are unoccupied--four times the normal rate. 12/ https://www.hsj.co.uk/acute-care/nhs-hospitals-have-four-times-more-empty-beds-than-normal/7027392.article

We can of course only speculate about the cause of death of the 3,124 non-Covid-19 deaths. Apart from the disruption in ordinary medical care, there are mortality risks from stress, isolation, and depression, all of which are elevated during a lockdown. 13/

Footnote: One might ask if the 61%-39% male-female disparity in the 3475 deaths where Covid-19 is on the death certificate is itself proof that all were caused by Covid-19. But there is a range of disparity elsewhere, e.g. 72% male in Greece and 55% in Sweden. 14/

So it seems safer to stick with the estimation that 86% of the deaths with Covid-19 listed on the death certificate were caused by Covid-19, assuming the rate found by the ONS in March applies to Week 14 also. END