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Was just playing around with Lions projections....
Go and buy TJ Hockenson...
He is almost definitely going to have a TE1 season this year. Probably a really good TE1 season.
Oh, and he's really fricking good
https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1161871452251086848?s=20
Go and buy TJ Hockenson...
He is almost definitely going to have a TE1 season this year. Probably a really good TE1 season.
Oh, and he's really fricking good
https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1161871452251086848?s=20
Hockenson had a 14.1% target share as a rookie.
Among TE's drafted in the first 3 rounds since 2013 these are the tight ends that earned higher shares as rookies:
Jordan Reed
Evan Engram
<<End List>>
Among TE's drafted in the first 3 rounds since 2013 these are the tight ends that earned higher shares as rookies:
Jordan Reed
Evan Engram
<<End List>>
Almost every top 3 round pick since 2013 that had any kind of impact as a rookie saw a sizeable increase in target share:
2013's class
Eifert only played one game and saw 3 targets before getting hurt as a sophomore, so his doesnt really count.
2013's class
Eifert only played one game and saw 3 targets before getting hurt as a sophomore, so his doesnt really count.
2014 had a 3.6% increase on average (excluding Jace for obv reasons)
2015 didnt really have any fantasy relevant ones as rookies.
But in the 2016 class HH increased 3.10%
But in the 2016 class HH increased 3.10%
I normally left day 3 picks off the list, but included Kittle here as he is clearly a stud.
PS. Engram's 20% target share as a rookie tight end is madness.
PS. Engram's 20% target share as a rookie tight end is madness.
In 2018 the only guy that had a decent target share as a rookie from the first 3 rounds of the class was Andrews.
I think a target share bump of 3-5% is completely reasonable considering I think he was the best TE prospect of any of the guys listed above.
His 14.1% would grow to 17.1% - 19.1%.
His 14.1% would grow to 17.1% - 19.1%.
based on a expected pass volume in the neighbourhood of 568 that should net him 97 - 108 targets on the season.
In terms of raw targets, that would put him around TE5.
More than Andrews, less than Kittle.
In terms of raw targets, that would put him around TE5.
More than Andrews, less than Kittle.
If we average the high and low we get 102.5 targets.
The Average Yards per Target for all TE's last season was 6.91.
102.5*6.91 = 708 yards.
The Average Yards per Target for all TE's last season was 6.91.
102.5*6.91 = 708 yards.
The average YPT of the 12 most targeted TE's last year was 8.02.
102.5*8.02 = 822 yards.
822 yards would have put Hockenson at TE6 in 2019.
102.5*8.02 = 822 yards.
822 yards would have put Hockenson at TE6 in 2019.
Needless to say, I think a TE1 season is not only in the cards, but should be absolutely expected from Hock in 2020.
Oh, btw. Stafford only played 8 games last year, and he played really really well.
Oh, btw. Stafford only played 8 games last year, and he played really really well.
