Thread by @Comparativist, I say again: the COVID19 hill I’m willing to die on is [...]

I say again: the COVID19 hill I’m willing to die on is that population density is a classic “correlation = causation” logical fallacy. There’s no evidence for it. https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1248481752915431424

https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1248481752915431424

As a pandemic, the most important variable in the early stages is how many initial imports you get and when.

i.e., high levels of interconnectivity via travel to/from places with an early uncontained and undetected outbreaks.

https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1250483444125069312?s=21 https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1250483444125069312

https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1250483444125069312?s=21

The early risk vector Hong Kong faced was something like five direct flights from Wuhan a week, daily HSR bullet trains from Wuhan and across China arriving at Kowloon XRL station, and four border crossings with Shenzhen.

All during Chinese New Year...
https://twitter.com/noahpinion/status/1242305032701136896?s=21 https://twitter.com/noahpinion/status/1242305032701136896

https://twitter.com/noahpinion/status/1242305032701136896?s=21

What’s saved Mindoro so far (I think) is that COVID19 entered Manila later than we first feared, so handn’t spread widely enough to export [many?] cases via cramped & slow Batangas ferries to Calapan before the #LuzonLockdown cut the transmission chains.

https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1249937409514463232?s=21 https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1249937409514463232

https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1249937409514463232?s=21

Had it reached Mindoro, it would likely be another Albany that doesn’t make headlines b/c the tragedy is only evident to the outside world at a per capita level. Like there, it would spread between tight-knit large extended families, church, and funerals
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1248481752915431424?s=21 https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1248481752915431424

https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1248481752915431424?s=21

One Chinese suppression strategy that doesn’t get as much attention as it deserves is that most cities cut *all* intercity coaches and most trains by about Jan 26. But early/mid February, places like Beijing were quarantining everyone entering the city.
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1251008798136782848?s=21 https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1251008798136782848

https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1251008798136782848?s=21

The best way to prevent a COVID19 epidemic anywhere is blocking it from entering your country, state, province, city, or ‘rebel province’ in the first place.
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1250833481837371392?s=21 https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1250833481837371392

https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1250833481837371392?s=21

Density played a role in what’s happening in SG, but not overall pop density. The vast majority of new cases are from cramped unsanitary dorms an ‘invisible’ population lived in. SG gov wasn’t monitoring the dorms b/c private contractors were responsible.
https://twitter.com/vincentrk/status/1250875051659968513?s=21 https://twitter.com/VincentRK/status/1250875051659968513