THREAD: #Covid19 exposes grave political miscalculations behind decades of western geo-strategic relations with China. We sleepwalked into a supply-side over-dependency, believing China would embrace democratic norms. We’ve been played. China is now on a war footing. Here’s how:

1) For clothing (factory-fashion), PPE, IT parts & more, too many manufactured goods rely on a ‘Made in China’ supply-chain. And yet while owning the supply-side of our economies...

2) China’s been cloning western software via lackadaisical copyright. So as we rely on China for hardware, China avoided software dependency on us by creating TikTok to replace snapchat, Weibo for Twitter, WeChat & RenRen for Facebook. They have a Chinese version for everything

3) ok, so manufactured goods & hardware = ‘Made in China’. Software = ‘Cloned in China’. What of natural resources? Through China’s ‘Belt & Road’ initiative she has lent money to developing nations while securing key infrastructure such as mines & ports as collateral for loans..

Look to Pakistan, African & South East Asian nations to see China’s rapid expansion of ownership of mines & ports. Look to the UK for her attempts to secure our telecoms industry via the Huawei deal, her offer to buy British Steel & her offer to develop our nuclear power stations

4) Over decades we naively outsourced (or lost) manufacturing, software & natural resources to China. Yet as #Covid19 highlights, during a crisis (or a war) our society is at a standstill & we are unable to manufacture PPE etc.. Meanwhile, China has achieved *self-sufficiency*

5) Let’s move to China’s domestic politics: while doing the above economically, China’s communist one-party state centralised political power, gained unprecedented command over her population via spy-tech, placed up to 2m Uigurs in gulags & made President Xi, president for life..

6) Now, you tell me from British colonial history, East India company & the British Raj: which type of state seeks to centralise domestic power under one strong leader, own global supply chains, monopolise industry, while expanding abroad to secure natural resources?

7) there’s little room for doubt, China is at a pre-colonial stage. She is *aggressively* pursuing self-sufficiency from internationalism. Question arises WHY? My unavoidable conclusion is: China is preparing for war. If/when this happens (not yet), is distinct from her preparing

8) it pains me to say that the type of war China is preparing for is total, not partial war. The kind of war that rebalances the world order, tipping it in her favour by replacing the US as the dominant power.

9) Also (crucially, unlike us) China is not preparing for past wars. China is preparing for the next type of war. China knows that she cannot beat the US militarily. But that type of ground war is almost over. By securing supply chains, having an iron grip on her own population..

10) China can focus on building her cyber & biological war capabilities while remaining relatively safeguarded against the same herself, because she is not dependent on the world for supply chains or tech.

11) considering this, from steel, to nuclear to telecoms, our policy towards China hitherto can be best described as one of miserably failed economic appeasement. So, what’s the solution? Take their bait & prepare for war too?

12) No. We must first understand what happened & why we are in this darkly comedic position where we willingly handed China the tools by which to beat us. If this (terrible, but not devastating) #Covid19 outbreak were harsher (eg: Black Death) lacking PPE, we’d all be dead by now

13) we must urgently pivot our strategic relationship with China. I repeat, this does NOT mean go to war. It means: have a strategy!

i) assume China is in a Cold War with us already (the above thread shows she indisputably is) & respond with this in mind (ie: end the naivety)

ii) end this naive global supply-chain total dependency on any one nation

iii) trade with China, yes, but always ringfence critical infrastructure: nuclear, telecoms & natural resources eg: steel

iv) the post-WWII international community via the UN (as recent politicisation of WHO shows) is no longer serving its purpose. We must reorder our strategic & military alliances around the Pacific (NATO style) & build an international consensus against the communist Chinese state

v) just like nuclear non proliferation, there must be global consequences for cyber & bio hazard. Post Covid, we must build a new global consensus on which punitive measures are suited to states that violate our cyber or bio safety

14) as I tried to show, due to our ‘othering’ of China, our hubris & our naivety, we have been outmanoeuvred by a people & culture who brought us Sen Zhou’s the Art of War. This outbreak has magnified these failures & we would be deserving of loss if we did not learn lessons now.

Typo (sorry, it’s twitter and they don’t allow edits) https://twitter.com/edwardhenley/status/1250789051420102657?s=21 https://twitter.com/EdwardHenley/status/1250789051420102657

Useful addendum: https://twitter.com/berniespofforth/status/1250789746311417857?s=21 https://twitter.com/berniespofforth/status/1250789746311417857

https://twitter.com/sentomcotton/status/1250524407497441282?s=21 https://twitter.com/SenTomCotton/status/1250524407497441282

Finally, those asking whether China “released” #Covid19 deliberately. No, I don’t think she did. Covid-19 provided us with the perfect (albeit tragic) dry-run for a future aspect of warfare &lessons in how to be better prepared. It doesn’t suit China for us to learn these lessons

This is all in once place on my Facebook page here: https://www.facebook.com/135775283156412/posts/2941412362592676/

This thread is now a full column:
https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1252112260060889088?s=21 https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1252112260060889088