Thread: The Mother of all October Surprises

SCOTUS will hear two cases related to Trump’s tax returns and bank records on May 12. One case is being brought by the House and the other by the Manhattan DA.

This thread will lay out the issues SCOTUS will be considering.

The House Case

The House is seeking Trump’s tax returns from the company that does Trump and his businesses’ tax returns (Mazars). They also are seeking his bank records from Deutsche Bank, which was the only bank willing to lend Trump money in the decade before 2016.

Keep in mind, the House was not in an impeachment inquiry when they issued subpoenas to Mazars and Deutsche Bank, so SCOTUS is NOT faced with the question of whether Congress can get Trump’s tax and bank records to consider whether to impeach him.

Instead, the House must show they have a valid “legislative purpose” for getting his tax and bank records. The District courts and Circuit courts of appeals that heard the House’s cases all agreed that the House has shown a valid “legislative purpose.”

Let’s look.

House Overisght says its legislative purpose for getting Trump’s tax returns from Mazars is to perform oversight based on Michael Cohen’s testimony to the Committee detailing Trump’s financial crimes. Hard to argue the “Oversight Committee” is not allowed to perform oversight.

The House has proffered two “legislative purposes” for getting Trump’s bank records from Deutsche Bank, both tied to the fact that Trump is a money launderer for Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other foreign nationals. The House General Counsel said this in open court.

The Financial Services Committee says its “legislative purpose” for getting Trump’s Deutsche Bank records is to use Trump as a test case for how people like Trump launder money, in order to come up with laws to prevent it from happening in the future.

House Intelligence says its “legislative purpose” for getting the DB records is to see whether Trump is compromised by financial ties to foreign powers. This one is a slam dunk. Obviously, House Intelligence has a valid interest in seeing whether POTUS is compromised.

Trump says the “legislative purposes” are pretexts and the House just wants his financial records to embarrass him or impeach him, and impeachment is off the table since the House was not in an impeachment inquiry when it issued the subpoenas.

SCOTUS will decide who is right.

Keep in mind that, if SCOTUS rules against Trump, there is nothing Trump or Barr can do to stop Mazars and Deutsche Bank from complying with the subpoenas, and they’ve both said they will comply if ordered by SCOTUS.

The other SCOTUS case is brought by the Manhattan DA. Let’s get something straight. The Manhattan DA does not work for Barr or for @NewYorkStateAG. The Manhattan DA is Cy Vance. He is an autonomous, elected official. He works for the people of New York City.

Yes, Cy Vance had a checkered past. There is reason to believe he has bowed to political pressure and looked the other way on high profile cases in the past to protect his own career. However, NYC hates Trump, and so now Vance is absolutely motivated to get Trump.

The Manhattan DA is investigating Trump and the Trump Org for a wide range of financial crimes of the type Michael Cohen described to Congress, and Cohen is a cooperating witness. The Manhattan DA picked up the case when Barr shut down SDNY’s investigation into the Trump Org.

The Manhattan DA’s grand jury issued a subpoena to Mazars for Trump’s tax records. Trump says, under the Constitution, he is absolutely immune from criminal investigation while serving as POTUS. There is no precedent for this and nothing to this effect in the Constitution.

There is simply no basis for Trump’s argument that he’s immune from criminal investigation. And, even if *he* were immune from investigation (which he is not), Vance also is after his company and his family, and Trump’s tax returns are relevant to whether *they* committed crimes.

Those are the issues SCOTUS will address. All of Trump’s arguments are frivolous bullshit and, if SCOTUS sides with Trump, they will both destroy their legitimacy and make it almost impossible to ever investigate a sitting POTUS of either party.

The stakes couldn’t be higher.

With argument in May, expect a ruling by July. I expect the House and the Manhattan DA to have Trump’s financials by August and I expect the House to release its findings and for the Manhattan DA to indict Trump and his family in the *October* timeframe.

SURPRISE!!!