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The excellent @CER_IanBond @CER_EU has prompted me to look back at my 2017 predictions and recommendations for Brexit/Northern Ireland and British-Irish relations. This can be a trying (squeaky bum) task for any academic or think tanker. Here goes. / Thread https://twitter.com/CER_IanBond/status/1250497982274953216
1. 2017: the EU should maintain much of its funding for programmes in NI.
2020: Some progress - the Commission has made strenuous efforts to maintain its PEACE, other programmes. A block here has been the attitude of London, example: refusing to allow an EU office in Belfast. /
2020: Some progress - the Commission has made strenuous efforts to maintain its PEACE, other programmes. A block here has been the attitude of London, example: refusing to allow an EU office in Belfast. /
2. 2017: NI should be able to opt into CAP after Brexit.
2020: - Little progress, bleak. /
2020: - Little progress, bleak. /
3. 2017: " in the event of a failure to quickly agree a
comprehensive free trade agreement with the UK, the
EU could work with London to create a specific regime
for Irish and Northern Irish goods and services (including
and beyond agri-food)"
2020: Likely for NI plus additions
comprehensive free trade agreement with the UK, the
EU could work with London to create a specific regime
for Irish and Northern Irish goods and services (including
and beyond agri-food)"
2020: Likely for NI plus additions
Note: This last prediction was greeted with some scepticism in London, Brussels and Dublin but has actually broadly played out, with some variations.
4. 2017: A swiftly negotiated, close customs agreement between the EU and the UK would mitigate downsides to GB-NI of any special EU arrangements for NI.
2020: Little progress, regression in 2020 since UK GE.
2020: Little progress, regression in 2020 since UK GE.
5. 2017: Increase bilateral security arrangements to mitigate likely UK falling-out of JHA mechanisms such as EAW, Siena, SIS II etc.
2020: Some signs of progress but only so much Ireland can do bilaterally. Much will depend on future negs on EU-UK JHA, CT, intel cooperation. /
2020: Some signs of progress but only so much Ireland can do bilaterally. Much will depend on future negs on EU-UK JHA, CT, intel cooperation. /
6. 2017: Strengthen the British Irish Council(BIC). Maximise the CTA mechanism for joint visa and security cooperation. 2020: Real signs of progress. Recent commitment by Dublin to strengthen the BIC and the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference (BIIGC) /
Summary: We got some things right (and CAP very wrong) - certainly the proposed bespoke arrangements for NI in the absence of the UK remaining in or close the CU/SM have played out. But there is a long way to go. What is right in 2020 may be very wrong by 2022.
