New $BTC predictions. No one buys into a drop like that except the pros (and me heh). Price pumped too fast to allow retail in - it was driven by short liqs. I expect consolidation and a slow grind up for retail to start getting excited, then pull the rug on them, like so.

1/ https://twitter.com/FangTrades/status/1249665201231687681">https://twitter.com/FangTrade...
2/ $BTC 4H view.

4H MS firmly bullish but turning downwards along red arc.
Yellow arc invalidated via break of tangent line.
Prev demand tapped, bulls ready.

Expecting:
- Red arc invalidation
- Green arc to guide price through 25th
- Drop before 20th
- Breakout around 22nd-26th
3/ $BTC 1H. Lots going on.

Expecting:
- Sweep 7194 high; break into bullish MS
- Dump to fill the massive gap @ 6650-6920
- Formation of new demand cluster around 6620-6700.
- Pump, eventually consolidate above 2020 yearly open
- Pivot through 7330 level to fill gap up to 7750+
4/ $BTC Swing trade gameplan

Shorts
- Entry 7200-7250
- Invalidation > 7330
- Target 6666
3.8-6.3 RRR

Longs
- Entry 6660-6600
- Invalid < 6460
- Target 7750+
5.7-7.3 RRR

Maybe short at 7750+

6600-6700 demand zone is last place to accumulate spot BTC under 6750 for a while imo
5/ $BTC Just found medium term clarity with this orange arc. Fits a lot better than the red one, with 3-4 touch points on each side instead of 2. It suggests we& #39;ll slowly continue to make our way towards 7750. This path makes a lot of sense to me - going to play along with it.
6/ $BTC First set of asks filled at 7197. Also market sold another lot at 7169.

Might wick higher again but happy with this entry for now.
7/ $BTC That& #39;s a https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="White heavy check mark" aria-label="Emoji: White heavy check mark"> for "Consolidation / chop / grind up". This PA is nowhere as structured as the Apr 7-10 consolidation, and I& #39;m thus not particularly interested in scalping it.

Spending some time charting alt/btc and fx pairs while I wait for some action
8/ https://twitter.com/FangTrades/status/1242569576254242818?s=20

Look">https://twitter.com/FangTrade... familiar? I got burned last time trying to long this consolidation near the highs. The upward grind stopped out shorts multiple times too - you saw it all over CT.

Zoom out to set your stops. And don& #39;t buy resistance, friends
9/ @LomahCrypto said it best: https://twitter.com/LomahCrypto/status/1243693373648592896?s=20">https://twitter.com/LomahCryp...
10/ More confluence for this $BTC long:

https://twitter.com/FangTrades/status/1245774472638074882?s=20">https://twitter.com/FangTrade...
11/ $BTC Asks filled at 7246; that& #39;s my third lot of shorts

Time to damp it
12/ Placed a breakout buy at 7350 just in case we pump from here - target 7750, though price already dumped a bit before I could post

Looks like we& #39;ll see some action soon
13/ Looking good. Added a fourth lot of shorts here at 7184. Avg price 7203
14/ Not looking good - would have liked to see price dump sooner than this, and it is consolidating a little too close for comfort. Widened my stops to tolerate another wick and reduced risk significantly.
15/ The basis for the trade is still solid though. $ETH and $SPX add confluence to this trade to the extent they influence the price of Bitcoin - they both look ready to drop any moment now. I still think a bearish bias out of this consolidation area is the correct one.
15/ The basis for the trade is still solid though. $ETH and $SPX add confluence to this trade to the extent they influence the price of Bitcoin - they both look ready to drop any moment now. I still think a bearish bias out of this consolidation area is the correct one.
15/ The basis for the trade is still solid though. $ETH and $SPX add confluence to this trade to the extent they influence the price of Bitcoin - they both look ready to drop any moment now. I still think a bearish bias out of this consolidation area is the correct one.
16/ Looking good again. I think $BTC will:
- Turn down with increasing momentum (blue arc instead of rug pull)
- Tap demand, rally to the 7750s, a HTF pivotal area

Then, we may consolidate under resistance or continue downwards. Hoping for the former but prepared for the latter.
17/ Beautiful. That& #39;s a https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="White heavy check mark" aria-label="Emoji: White heavy check mark"> for "down with increasing momentum."

Looking for a tap of 6666 next
18/ The pump stopped me out at 7114. Although I made money on this trade and am long on another, there& #39;s lots to improve on, since I missed my target and lost significant paper profits - paper profits are money too!
19/ Overall I& #39;ve traded Bitcoin very well the last two weeks. I& #39;ve made money on the last three trade ideas I& #39;ve taken, compounding multiple times for the first and third. You can see these trades 124W, 127W, and 134W on the chart.
20/ But it& #39;s time to do some reflection, journalling, and backtesting. Bitcoin& #39;s not at a spot I want to trade anyway. I wrote 26 journal pages last Sunday to try to memorialize the insights that have led to my recent good performance - continuing that today.
21/ Some thoughts. Things that went well:
- Nailed the entry. I was underwater for <3% of the >135 hours the trade was open, made money almost based on the entry alone
- Arcs. When I realized a rug pull was unlikely I correctly predicted the path up until arc invalidation
22/ Types of rules I& #39;ll backtest over the coming days
- Target setting: refining S/D clusters with more context
- Profit taking: Multiple targets, evolving R, indicators
- Consolidations: Investigate if intra-range PA could hint at the direction of breakout, e.g. Rule of 5 on S/R
23/ And time to score the predictions from the first few tweets in the thread. Lots of tweets, sorry - trying to be transparent and verifiable

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="White heavy check mark" aria-label="Emoji: White heavy check mark"> Red arc invalidation
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⏱" title="Stopwatch" aria-label="Emoji: Stopwatch"> Green arc to guide price through 25th: Still valid
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="White heavy check mark" aria-label="Emoji: White heavy check mark"> Drop before 20th
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⏱" title="Stopwatch" aria-label="Emoji: Stopwatch"> Breakout around 22nd-26th: Pending
24/
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="White heavy check mark" aria-label="Emoji: White heavy check mark">Sweep 7194 high; break into bullish MS
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="White heavy check mark" aria-label="Emoji: White heavy check mark">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⚠️" title="Warning sign" aria-label="Emoji: Warning sign"> Dump to fill the massive gap @ 6650-6920 (Halfway filled)
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="❌" title="Cross mark" aria-label="Emoji: Cross mark"> Formation of new demand cluster around 6620-6700.
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="White heavy check mark" aria-label="Emoji: White heavy check mark"> Pump, eventually consolidate above 2020 yearly open
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⏱" title="Stopwatch" aria-label="Emoji: Stopwatch"> Pivot through 7330 level to fill gap up to 7750+ (Not yet)
FIN/ That& #39;s it, thank you for reading and following along my journey. Writing for you makes me feel like I am not alone, and it helps me clarify my thoughts, too.

Closing this thread with +1.99R.
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