No surprise that terrorists/criminals stepping up provision of services during #COVID19 pandemic. We toss around the term ungoverned spaces but no area is truly ungoverned. It might be alternatively governed though; providing services a proven way to acquire political legitimacy.

All of this was clear to see from 100 yards away. Anyone that has even taken a "Terrorism 101" primer will have studied how groups like Hezbollah, ISIS, Provisional IRA, Tamil Tigers, Taliban, Lashkar-e-Taiba & others provide alternative forms of governance in areas they control.

I don't want to overstate the potential significance here, but I do think the #coronavirus pandemic will provide a range of violent non-state actors with some real opportunities to carve out increased operational space, as states & governments struggle to respond to the fallout.

And there are clear implications for conflict. Some insurgents will take advantage of this period to go on the offensive. In many regions the military will be tasked with coronavirus response. Security cooperation will decrease & efforts to build partner capacity will suffer/lag.

For more see "Welfare as Warfare: How Violent Non-State Groups Use Social Services to Attack the State" by Grynkewich in Studies in Conflict & Terrorism a/w/a "Nonprofit Service Provision by Insurgent Organizations: The Case of Hizballah and LTTE" by Flanigan & many others too