"There is one country that is shining a ray of hope. Greece is breaking the chain of #COVID19 contagion. Experts are calling the Greek Model a textbook example of crisis management." (via @WIONews)

I don't think people abroad fully appreciate how empowering it is for the average Greek to hear that his/her country has transformed from the "black sheep of Europe" (falsely and negatively stereotyped for a decade in foreign press) to a "textbook example of crisis management".

Given its over-reliance on tourism and the systemic weaknesses that still exist as a legacy of its decade-long crisis, Greece's economy will undeniably be hit very hard by #COVID19. Most forecasts predict a steep recession with a GDP contraction anywhere from -5 to -20% for 2020.

It won't be easy for Greece. Small Greek businesses, startups, the self-employed, the chronically unemployed, and all those 30-something-year-olds who have already seen their dreams and hopes crashed once not so long ago — those will suffer the most due to #COVID19 consequences.

But, the defeat of populism last year has paved the way for a relative maturity in the political system. And the swift action of the gov WRT the situation in the GR-TR border, together with the exemplary crisis management vs #COVID19, has re-ignited people's trust in the state.

The reliance on experts to formulate a fast and cohesive response vs #COVID19, as well as the comprehensive and rapidly-deployed state-led effort to bring the country's digital capabilities to the 21st century (in a month!) are already bearing fruits and embraced by most Greeks.

If the Greek govt remains laser-focused and does not fall prey to its own complacency or sense of grandeur. If the public sector keeps making digital leaps in transforming into a proper modern state. If the private sector keeps up its unprecedented support (e.g. #donate_ESY) ...

... there is a good chance that Greece not only survives the pandemic, but also grows stronger because of it. It won't be easy, and it will require a united national effort (and international support from our EU peers and the Greek diaspora). But it's doable. And necessary.

The worst is yet to come, especially given the time-lag effect of #COVID19's most deleterious consequences on the Greek economy (e.g. tourism). But it does not have to be catastrophic for Greece. We've been there recently — for 10 long years. I hope we have learned our lessons.

Time for Greece to start believing in itself again. With this in mind, the celebration of 200years since its War of Independence @Greece_2021 could not be more timely. In Greece's long history we've had our fair share of catastrophes. But we've also had triumphs (à la @SKalyvas).