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THREAD 1/9 Looking ahead to the future—to the time when the pandemic is over—we can see six political crises looming on the horizon for the Russian authorities that look set to outweigh even the unprecedented impending economic crisis, writes @AndrKolesnikov. https://twitter.com/DmitriTrenin/status/1242458001061089280
2/9 The first is an image crisis. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin has somewhat eclipsed Putin during the handling of the pandemic, while the president has been relegated to the role of the nation’s psychotherapist.
3/9 The second is a crisis in the perception of reality. Russia’s leaders can’t accept that they need to lend a helping hand to the class Putin himself has said are “crooks”: private entrepreneurs. So far, the state has only taken inconsistent measures to support businesses.
4/9 The state needs their taxes to offset the cost of the sprawling state sector, security services and so on. Without their contribution to the economy, there will be no cash to buy voters’ loyalty in the upcoming elections. But saving private businesses isn’t yet a priority.
5/9 This is linked to the crisis in the social contract (we make sure you have enough, & in exchange you vote for us). Fuelled by petrodollars, this contract worked for years, but could be eroded if the state loses the support of private businesses. https://tinyurl.com/yc7qzmkk
6/9 The social contract included state services, but they too are now in crisis: they have disappeared altogether. Right now, Russians are unable to solve any tax, legal or household problems they may face. Where have all the junior officials got to? https://tinyurl.com/yar99ecc
7/9 So the pandemic's over, the private sector's in ruins, but the state wants to resurrect its old agenda of the evil West, fifth columnists, etc. There will be a crisis in mobilizing the masses. The flag people used to rally around has taken a beating. http://carnegie.ru/p-81485
8/9 The mobilization crisis is closely linked to the crisis in goal-setting. What are we fighting for now? What are we striving for, if it’s not communism, nor capitalism, nor to make Russia great again?
9/9 These are the 6 crises, not to mention the giant recession. It’s far from certain, however, that they will radically change anything. Quite possibly, they’ll simply become the new normal & we’ll learn to live with them. Russian text for @Vedomosti: https://tinyurl.com/wfb3m56
