I’ve been intrigued by the Covid-19 modeling the federal govt has been talking about, which both Imran Khan and Dr @zfrmrza say Pak is well below. No details have been provided about what assumptions went into these projections.

But I decided to go back to the original...>
...projections we had presented in @eosmagazine on March 22. Remember that these were based on the following assumptions:

a) That NO mitigation measures such as lockdowns were initiated
b) That based on various epidemiological studies around the world, numbers of infections...>
...would double every 6 days
c) That we were looking only at confirmed cases (actual cases would be about 8-10 times as many)

Now let me present our projections versus what actually happened...
So this is what we had *projected* (along with *official reported figures* in brackets):

Mar 21: 510
Mar 27: 1,020 (1,374)
Apr 2: 2,040 (2,419)
Apr 8: 4,080 (4,004)
Apr 14: 8,160 (5,967)

Now, there are two important points to note here:
1. I have no idea what kind of projections the federal government is talking about that would have led to 18,000 cases by April 14 as they say. Only they can answer how they got these numbers. But certainly Pak cases are NOT a third of how many would have been there in a...>
...worst case scenario.

2. There has indeed been a drop from projected cases (leaving aside the issue of low testing). But remember that our projections were based on NO measures being taken (lockdowns, social isolation measures, quarantines). And recall also that the first...>
...lockdowns began on Mar 22. All evidence from around the world shows that the effects of such lockdowns in terms of stats only begin to manifest 3-4 weeks on from the time they start. Thus the current numbers make perfect sense.

What this means is two-fold:
I. We are seeing a flattening on the infection curve but it’s only a beginning

II. It is *entirely* due to the mitigation measures put in place which Imran Khan thinks were rushed through without thinking, and NOT because of any special genetic traits or blessings of Pakistanis.
You can follow @hyzaidi.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: